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ROUND AND ROUND WE GO...

Just to make a point about the volatility of the pattern we are in, here's what the GFS operational shows for snowfall May 6th. Take a little look see and then I'll comment.

First and foremost, even in the dead of winter that's a nice little band of snow. That in itself is impressive. However, for a model to spit this out in May it's obvious it has to be seeing some very cold air. It can snow this time of year, (I've seen it) however it would take a very unique set of circumstances, not the least of which is the cold air. I typically wouldn't even put this map up due to the very limited chance it happens...and frankly I seriously doubt it will, especially to that degree. Again, just to make it clear...I do not expect accumulating snow May 6th.


So why put it up? The answer is simple, to point out the fact the GFS thinks significant cold is coming. Here's what it has for temperature departures May 5th. Good gosh, nearly 30 degrees below normal. Nobody wants to see that!

That translates to temperatures in the afternoon that would be in the upper 30s to low 40s. That is just plain wrong. Over the 5 day period May 3rd-May 8th it depicts readings that are averaging 10-12 degrees below normal per day. That has me concerned about a hard freeze capable of doing damage. It's still hypothetical but it is on the table.

It's also not good for agriculture. There's a wet period coming and soil temps May 13th are projected to be in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Soil temperatures for corn planting need to be at least 50 for the seed to germinate. You farmers know what I'm getting at here.

The EURO weekly for the month of May (just in) shows this for temperatures in the month ahead.

The U.S. based climate model the CFSv2 has this for May. That is downright ugly.

If you are in need of something positive to grasp onto here's how the EURO thinks we start the month of June. These are the 7 day departures June 2nd-9th. I actually think that is where the summer is headed, I'll have more on that in another post. Nice to see red instead of blue for a change!

THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...

As we've been saying for days, another round of rain is a certainty Friday and at least Saturday morning. That comes on the heels of what fell the past 24 hours in my northern counties. Some places like Waterloo had a solid inch. Around Independence, Iowa, the rain even mixed with sleet and wet snow. Why not.

Anyway, this new ball of energy will generate rain which comes in a couple periods. The first chance arrives Friday but is mainly confined to my southern counties. I suspect it will be minimal and much of my area avoids it. There could even be enough sunshine in many areas to allow highs to reach the mid 60s and low 70s. That is a big positive change from previous guidance and trends going back several days.


Friday night and Saturday the primary forcing arrives sending a wave of showers and thunderstorms into the region. Moisture will increase sufficiently for moderate to locally heavy rains, particularly where thunderstorms are involved. Saturday morning the dry slot associated with an occluding front will advance NE through the region. Showers and thunderstorm should end in the morning over the southwest and depart the northeast later in the day. Enough sunshine is expected to push temperatures into the range of 65 north to 75 south. The EURO shows this for highs.

As for rain totals, I would think most areas get at least a half inch but some amounts well over an inch are possible. Here's a sampling of what models are suggesting.


The EURO

The GFS

The HRRR

There is a slight chance a strong storm could develop Saturday afternoon in my eastern counties. However, I agree with SPC that the better chances right now are east of my area in central and eastern Illinois. As you can see there's a slight risk in effect out that way at the time of this posting.

Sunday the system is long gone and windy cooler air once again surges into the region. Highs will range from the mid 50s north (where a brief shower or sprinkle is possible) to the mid 60s south. Winds gusts of more than 30 mph are likely. Welcome to May.


Speaking of that, I already alluded to the fact next week looks active and trending cooler as the week progresses. Rain chances exist Monday night/Tuesday and again Wednesday night/Thursday. Over the next 2 weeks the EURO shows well above normal precipitation covering the entire central U.S.

I guess it's fair to say I won't be bored over the next several weeks. This time of year is a little manic to begin with but this is hyper-active even for spring. Happy Friday everyone despite the mother nature. Roll weather...TS

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