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SNOW BACK IN THE FORECAST

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ENOUGH TO SHOVEL...

It won't be a major storm, but "white gold" is back in the forecast, especially Thursday night. The system, a clipper, will dive southeast sending its lift and energy over the region. It's a fast mover, meaning only a 6-8 hour window for any meaningful snow. However, within that block of time, CAMS (convective allowing models) are painting 1/10th to 2/10ths of an inch of QPF. Put that into snow production with 20:1 ratios and a general 2-4" snow band would result. Interesting, the deterministic EURO and GFS are lower on QPF and suggest amounts more in the 2" category area wide. I'm thinking a fluffy 2-3" snow looks like a solid middle ground solution based on the fresh data I've seen through 2:00pm Wednesday. If the CAMS are correct, it's possible some 4" totals could result in banding (where forcing is maximized). Models had been promoting a period of snow showers as early as tonight, but dry air is prevalent and most have backed away on any minor accumulations tonight. That means the main show holds off until late Thursday afternoon and night. Here's what guidance is suggesting for snow totals from this event. Keep in mind, these are not forecasts, just the raw data that is used to create forecasts. There's still some variance that needs to be tightened up.


The GFS

The EURO

The 3k NAM

The HRRR

The national blend of models

ANOTHER BLAST OF WIND AND COLD

Additionally, once the clipper passes, Arctic air again makes a surge into the region. This ratchets up the pressure gradient, producing NW winds of 25-30 mph by Friday morning. With fresh powder on top of our deep snow pack, some blowing snow is quite possible, especially in the open country. It's possible the NWS will issue a winter weather advisory at some point for the multiple hazards on the table. Here's what the HRRR shows for lows Friday morning.

Wind chill around 20-25 below are back in the saddle

The weekend looks cold and quiet, and then we flip the pattern with much warmer conditions next week. More on that in my next post. Roll weather...TS P.S. A donation to the site would be a tremendous honor and immensely appreciated.

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