SOME PRE-SUMMER SIZZLE...
Memorial weekend has come and gone. Hopefully your holiday was was as special as the weather which featured warm dry conditions across the central Midwest. A warming trend which began in earnest Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s will continue to build and many areas are primed for highs that exceed 90 in coming days, likely the warmest readings in over 8 months.
The EURO continues to advertise maximum temperatures of 90 or above in the Quad Cities from Tuesday through Sunday of the coming weekend, far above the norms which are in the upper 70s to near 80.
Here's the daily temperature departures as shown by the EURO over the next 7 days. 10 degrees or more per day is a very healthy surplus.
In general, humidity is not expected to be a large factor but moisture levels will gradually increase from the meager amounts of the past few days. Eventually dew points could break 60 by Thursday which should up the game in terms of heat impacts as we get deeper into the week.
Despite the late week influx in moisture, forcing for rainfall remains minimal. As a result, rain chances remain limited into next weekend. What little threat exists Thursday and Friday is tied to widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms which are driven by little more that afternoon heating. Capping (warm air aloft) looks significant so any storms that fire should be spotty at best. For now, the best chances exist Friday afternoon and in no place are odds greater than 30 percent. A couple spots may get in on a brief downpour but in general broad brush rainfall output from guidance shows amounts under 1/10th of an inch.
If you've been on this page lately you know the past 2 weeks I have been hammering the idea of drought conditions expanding around the region. The table is certainly set for that. Going into June and the heart of summer, exceedingly dry conditions have prevailed. After a couple good rains to start May, the faucet has gone dry. Over the past 22 days rain at the NWS office in Davenport has amounted to just 0.15 inches. That's a period that would typically see over 3 inches.
Considering we are going into the heart of summer, dry soil, the long days of strong sunshine, and a pattern that is not conducive to rain is problematic. These conditions can rapidly speed up the development of drought and the NWS warns that a "flash drought" is possible. Essentially that means that the risk is there for a rapid transition to drought over the next 2 weeks. This could have significant impacts on agriculture.
I personally have been anticipating this trend and feel the "flash drought" idea has merit, especially when I look at the 500mb pattern that's forecast for June 8th. The eastern trough and ridge over Canada is a classic text book set-up for dry weather in the central U.S. With the Gulf of Mexico (our moisture source) shut down for business, rain chances will be few and far between, if at all. The EURO shows a massive area of dry weather centered on the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Actually a large part of eastern North America.
The tighter depiction below indicates rainfall deficits growing by another 1.5 inches over the next 10 days across my area.
Actual rain totals look like this over the 10 day period ending June 8th.
Hot and dry, that's a tough way to kick off June. I suspect it's something we'll need to get used too as summer unfolds. We shall see. Meantime, have a fine day and roll weather...TS