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TAKIN' A "CHILL" PILL...

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THE CHILL RETURNS...

After a couple days in the 50s, the reality of mid-November returns today with a fresh shot of cold air. Behind a cold front, winds have turned in briskly from the northwest and temperatures have been steadily falling all night. Early Thursday readings will be well into the 20s and with a fresh breeze still blowing wind chills will sink into the upper teens and low 20s. The 3k NAM produces 7:00 AM temperatures looking like this.

These are the wind chills at the same time on the 3k.

Thanks to strong cold air advection throughout Thursday, highs should remain in the low to mid 30s in most places with wind chills in the 20s. Only the far south has a chance at the upper 30s. It will be a refreshing fall day.


THE WEEKEND OUTLOOK

Friday remains chilly although slightly warmer with return flow late in the day drawing mild air back into the Midwest. Highs will go from the low 40s Friday to the low 50s Saturday as warm air advection and southerly winds pump readings up. Partly cloudy skies are expected both days.


Saturday night the next strong cold front takes aim in the area. Ahead of it there may be enough moisture for a band of light showers to develop with the frontal passage around daybreak Sunday. The SE half is targeted for any showers that might develop with the NW staying dry. The GFS is far more enthused about the prospect than the EURO. It shows this for rain totals through early Sunday.

The EURO is weaker and even further south. Not much in it's scenario. Personally, I thing the EURO is on the right track and I don't expect much in the way of rain (if any) with the frontal passage.

The cold front does contain some polar air and it dives across the region later Sunday and brings temperatures way down again on Monday. In fact, it's quite possible that highs won't get above freezing. Get a load of these wind chills Monday morning, down in the single digits!

This push pull pattern delivers a real roller coaster effect on temperatures which will be bouncing around on a regular basis into Thanksgiving. Look what the this combined meteogram of several different models shows for temperatures, wind chills, and wind gusts over a 7 day period that started Wednesday. Just look at the peaks and valleys with spreads in all these categories quite significant. I used Cedar Rapids as an example.


Temperatures- a 30 degree range

Wind Chills- a 45 degree spread

Wind Gusts- from zero to 45 mph.

THANKSGIVING

At this point dry weather seems likely but another cold front takes temperatures from near 50 Wednesday to the upper 30s to low 40s Thanksgiving day. Traveling around the Midwest should not be an issue if current trends hold.


ON TO THE FUN STUFF

For two months now my analogs and teleconnections have been telling me to watch out for a wintry December with an abundance of cold air and at least normal snowfall. From time to time models have given hints at this only to back down. Today my ideas got significant support from modeling and the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation). We're still early in the evolution of this pattern so I don't want to get too far ahead of myself but this is exciting stuff and very fun to speculate about!

Let's start with the 500mb jet stream pattern that's now on the modeling for December 2nd. Here you go.


The EURO

The GFS

A couple days ago I talked about the importance of blocking over the top with positive heights linking up from from the Pacific NW to Alaska and on to Greenland to foster cold. Both the EURO and GFS are now depicting that by early December paving the way for what could be significant cold. The EURO really depicts the potential well showing the red colors associated with the positive heights throughout the northern latitudes of N. America.


By December 1st, the EURO is indicating temperature departures that look like this.

I have also been watching the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) and it appears to be headed into phase 7 December 1st (see the dotted green lines). Also notice all the random yellow lines, those are ensemble members and a number of them are shown headed into phase 8 with amplitude shorter after. Below you can see the temperature analogs for phase 7 in November and December and they are cold.

Phase 8 is even colder in December and if the MJO runs the cycle from 7 through 1 in December we are in for some big time cold!

This is of course all speculative at this point but when I see the models and MJO converging as they did Wednesday I take notice. There is real support on the table for this happening otherwise I would not be riding this train. All that said, we're not there yet but inching steadily closer.


I won't even go into any snow prospects as it's too early to accurately define the storm tracks. However, if the cold comes, usually the snow does too!


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