THE CALL OF THE WILD...
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THE CALL OF THE WILD...
You haven't heard or seen it yet, but I see it on the weather charts, and it's just a matter of time before wild weather comes calling here in the Midwest. It's ironic too, since at 10:06pm. Tuesday, the Vernal Equinox occurs, signalling the start of spring. In keeping with the theme, today will be pleasant, but anybody who's ever experienced spring in the Midwest knows, the weather arsenal is vast and ever-changing. Expect the unexpected!
Tuesday leads off with a fine and rather typical March day. Expect a dry frontal passage in all areas by mid-afternoon. Winds will swing to the NW at that time, ushering in colder air. However, before that the strong March sun will do its thing, sending temperatures into the range of 55 north to 60 south.
Tuesday night, strong cold air advection follows the front on brisk NW winds, sending lows back below freezing, about 25 north to 30 south. A stiff north wind produces wind chills Wednesday morning in the mid to upper teens as far south as I-80. While quiet, Wednesday itself looks cold and well below normal, with highs in the upper 30s north to the mid 40s far south. The EURO shows this for highs.
A CLIPPER SCREAMS SNOW IN THE NORTH
Thursday with a deep pocket of cold air aloft stationary situated over SE Iowa, the stage is set for a clipper with the ability to produce a fast moving band of snow north of the sharp baroclinic boundary. The EURO has been very consistent with its depiction of thermal profiles, pointing at minor snow accumulations as far south as HWY 30. Further north, forcing is maximized near and north of HWY 20 late Thursday night and Friday morning, generating advisory type snows of 1–3 inches plus.
Other guidance such as the GFS has enough strong warm air advection in place to force the heavier snow band just north of HWY 20. There is no way to accurately make a distinction as to what model will be right, I am leaning more towards the EURO due to its consistency and my belief that the cold air will be strong enough to remain lodged further south, especially with the event arriving late night. That should get some snow down on my northern tier of counties. Here's what the EURO indicates for snow potential.
Notice the GFS is a good 30 miles further north with its snow band. Either way, some appreciable snow is going to fall from northern Iowa and southern Minnesota into Wisconsin.
The GFS
My central counties, from about I-80 north, may see a mix of precipitation types, while the far south encounters a cold but light rain. Since we are about 48 hours from the event, small thermal changes could create major changes in the overall impacts, especially across the north. Stay tuned.
Precipitation ends early Friday and after that a dreary and somewhat raw forecast awaits the region the remainder of Friday and Saturday. Brisk winds out of the ESE will also produce an added element of chill. Temperatures both Friday and Saturday should hold in the 30s north to the low to mid 40s south.
MAJOR WET STORM WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION
At this juncture, the focus turns to a major slug of energy and moisture that is forecast to eject out of a potent upper level trough that all models acknowledge. The big forecast hurdle will be assessing the degree and timing of energy. The amount of phasing will determine the ultimate strength of the surface low.
There certainly is plenty of potential for a strong wet system. It is also looking more and more likely that my area at some point gets into the warm sector of the storm, which means a potential big jump in temperatures. Rising readings are likely Sunday night, with highs reaching 60 in the south Monday.
Warm moist air also leads to instability and thunderstorm chances are likely to evolve at some point late weekend or early next week. The alignment of fronts and forcing determines where the heavier rain threat lays out. Strong thunderstorms with severe weather are also on the table, but where is still to be determined. The worst of it appears east of the Mississippi
The Weather Prediction Center shows my region and its proximity to the axis of warm and cold air, which is why the call for wild weather ahead.
Both the EURO and GFS indicate significant precipitation potential, which for my drought ridden counties in Iowa is actually good news. Take a look at what models are suggesting through early next week.
The EURO
The GFS
While my area should avoid heavy snow with this potent system, further north the upper Midwest is getting set for what could be some very large snow totals. These are very tentative totals and will change, but are representative of what both the EURO and GFS show for snowfall the next 7 days. This includes what falls Thursday night.
The EURO, showing a high-end historical snow event from Minneapolis northeast.
The GFS, probably too far south in my assessment. It still show a major snow event just to the north.
The Weather Prediction Center indicates a large area where heavy snow is possible as of this post.
WPC also put this graphic out on the weekend snow threat.
Suffice it to say, the Midwest as a whole is going to be the focus of potentially high impact weather that covers every facet of conditions from snow to thunderstorms, and cold to warm. Time to buckle up, there's a new sheriff in town, and its name is spring! Roll weather...TS
