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THE END OF THE LINE FOR HEAT...

Memorial Day 2022 was good one. A brisk SW wind and temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 made for a warm end to the holiday weekend.

The toasty temperatures surged north ahead of a strong late May storm ejecting out of the Plains. You can see the deep trough situated over the Rockies pumping heat and moisture into the Midwest. It's cold to the west.

It's also allowed a strong low pressure to ratchet up over eastern South Dakota. Significant severe weather battered parts of South Dakota, Minnesota, and a bit of Iowa late Monday. Through midnight 233 reports of severe weather had come in with 5 tornadoes.

What's left of that activity may impact some of my counties in eastern Iowa Tuesday morning. This is likely to weaken or dissipate with additional storm development later in the afternoon and evening when the cold front and dry line advances across Iowa. The current speed would indicate that timing is again off for for most of my region to see severe weather as we sit on the mellow edge of dissipation and reformation. Additionally the dynamics are not nearly as impressive as what were in place to the west Monday. At 7:00pm Tuesday the best CAPE and instability is found from NE Missouri into central Illinois.

That may preclude all but my far southeast counties from seeing a new round of surface based storms that develops Tuesday evening. Currently SPC shows a broad slight risk area over the SE 2/3rds of the region but that could easily be pushed further southeast in later updates if current trends materialize.

At this point I expect some scattered showers and storms are likely Tuesday with the threat ending in the NW in the morning and across the SE during the evening. Where any decent updrafts can hold together or materialize some heavy downpours are possible. Amounts should not be excessive as the storms look progressive.


A certainty is that the cold front exits by Wednesday and this quick burst of warmth is replaced by cooler and much drier air. Temperatures will descend from the upper 70s and low 80s Tuesday into the low to mid 70s the rest of the week. The air mass turns significantly drier too. Water vapor (PWAT's) drop from near 1.50" to under .50" Thursday night as the cold fronts forces the deep moisture south.


Available water vapor Wednesday.

Available water vapor Thursday evening.

This leads us into an extended period of cool weather with temperatures during the 5-10 day period (June 4th through June 9th) looking like this on the GFS.

June 10th through June 15th is even cooler. By then we are halfway into June.

The Climate Prediction Center shows the cool look as well, along with near normal precipitation. If the cool air is as strong as advertised we may even end up below normal on rainfall during the period with the deeper moisture well to our south.

So, outside of thunderstorm chances Tuesday, the next organized widespread rain threat looks to hold off until Saturday night or Sunday of the coming weekend.


I would also like to thank RK (Rebecca Kopelman) for filling in for me the past 6 days as I moved into my new place and got Eden into her first apartment. It's been an exhausting week and I appreciate the understanding and well wishes many of you have expressed. Three moves in 1 year is three too many. That will never happen again!. Have a great day and roll weather...TS.

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