THE HOME STRETCH OF WINTER, THE END GAME
- terryswails1
- 14 hours ago
- 2 min read
A SPECIAL MESSAGE
I would like to thank the 233 people who have stepped up to the plate and made a donation to fund the site through this December. This past year TSwails had over 600,000 sessions, meaning less than 1 donation per session. If you do not find value in the site or don't have the funds, I understand and still welcome you with open arms. For those of you here daily, who gain knowledge, or make financial decisions based on the information, I ask that you make a reasonable contribution. Every little bit helps. After much deliberation, I've decided that due to the daily commitment of time, money, and hard work, this will be the last year for the site if I don't reach my financial goal. I'm only 60 percent there. The future depends on you. Thank you for your consideration and support the past 13 years. T. Swails
THE HOME STRETCH OF WINTER, THE END GAME
Here we are, February 7th, heading into the home stretch of winter. Based on what I've seen, I think the end game, February 21st to March 21st, will be strong with a flurry of cold and snow. Meantime, what started as a tough winter has turned docile and very much on the ho-hum side of things. The AWSSI (Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index) has fallen from the extreme category on December 13th to the average category on February 7th
At its peak in mid-December, this winter was in the top 10% for overall severity. Now it's ranked about 50%, thanks largely to the lack of snow since then (less than 2 inches in Moline and not a single day with as much as an inch). Using analogs of similar trends in previous years, this winter is expected to end up classified as average, although a more wintry pattern ahead is shown boosting it to 57% severity at its conclusion.
For the Midwest as a whole, from the Mississippi west, the winter currently ranks average to even mild from western Iowa into the Plains. Further east, it's ranked severe to extreme.
For what it's worth, the ensembles of the EURO and GFS show this for snow. Most of it comes after February 15th, in the week 2 period.
The EURO ensemble ending the 22nd.
The GFS ensemble ending the 23rd.
Despite a mild week coming up, I wouldn't count winter out yet. Carry on and roll weather...TS ON A MORE SERIOUS NOTE, IF I DON'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 60% to my goal.
