THE LION SLEEPS TONIGHT...
We've actually put together a couple of decent weather days which has been a pleasant reversal of fortunes. The trend culminates Friday with the warmest day as highs head for the range of 65 to 70. Unfortunately the lion awakens and roars once again later this weekend. Get your fill of the warmth now with another polar plunge headed our way.
You can see the changes unfolding on the meteogram for Davenport, Iowa. Temperatures go from 70 Friday to 59 Saturday and 49 at noon Sunday. By Sunday NW winds are whistling at 35 mph.
In the animation below you can see the strong cold front come through Saturday morning with a few showers. Winds turn to the NW which initiates the cool-down. Later Saturday night the true cold air enters the picture. As it expands a wave sparks additional showers and the winds start cranking. Sunday, as the coldest air aloft arrives, instability rain showers spin in from the north. There is a chance some of these mix with or even change briefly to snow in the far north.
The GFS shows a trace of snow as far south as HWY 20. Parts of poor old Minnesota and Wisconsin could see a decent late season snow.
Duluth is one of those places that could pick up an inch or two, not the news they are hoping for. As of Monday, the NWS in Duluth had measured nearly 140" of snow, which is the snowiest season on record. That beats the previous record of 135.4" set during the winter of 1995-96. Interestingly, 1996 was the last year that Lake Superior completely froze over. Note the fact that there have only been 19 seasons on record that have recorded 100" or more in Duluth.
ROBERT WADLOW
By the way, this year's snowfall in Duluth is more than 3 feet higher than Robert Wadlow was tall. Robert was 8 foot 11 inches holding the record as the tallest man on record when he died at age 22 July 15th, 1940. He was still growing at the time of his passing.
It's been an impressive snow season in the Twin Cities as well with the Airport picking up more than 90" of snow, which is good enough for the 3rd snowiest season on record. They need less than 5.0" to move into the 2nd spot and less than 9" to reach the top. The latest measurable snow (0.1") on record at MSP was on May 24th set in 1925. Good grief.
Here's the snowfall departures for some cities to our north. It was a huge winter for snow up that way. So close yet so far away.
By Monday we are firmly entrenched in another chilly air mass with highs not getting out of the mid to upper 40s in most spots. Not the way to start the month of May.
With steep lapse rates from the cold air aloft plenty of clouds and stiff NW winds will be found. The day starts with wind chills in the upper 20s to low 30s. Really!
Some instability showers (perhaps mixed with a few snowflakes) remain a possibility, mainly in the NE half of my region closer to the cyclonic flow associated with the closed low aloft parked over the Great Lakes.
FLASH SALE ALERT...
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WHEN DOES THE CHILL DEPART?
This renewed pattern of cool temperatures does come with some heartening news and that's the fact the upper air low (the core of the cold) looks to get kicked out of the Great Lakes sooner than 24 hours ago. So while it will be very fresh Sunday through Tuesday, Wednesday will see a nice warm-up ahead of another cool push later next week. The EURO has us back near 70 next Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS is not so optimistic so the jury is still out on the verdict but at least there's hope we could get a quick reprieve the middle of next week. That said, the next 10 days starting this Saturday look to average well below normal with the GFS showing 10 day temperature departures that are quite chilly.
But, as I've been indicating in recent posts, there is reason to believe a warmer regime is in the cards after May 10th. The 500mb flow this Monday is very energetic and cold over the Midwest (May 1st).
By May 13th we're seeing some ridging return to the east and a far more relaxed upper level jet structure. The blocking in Canada leading to the chill of the last 2 weeks is largely eliminated.
Temperature departures go from this May 1st.
To this May 13th. That's a far friendlier pattern.
It also looks to be a dry pattern with below normal precipitation centered on the nation's heartland.
That's the long and short of it for now. Happy Friday and roll weather...TS
