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THE SUMMER OF LOVE...

We've all heard the headlines from countless sources about the raging heat waves and how the country is burning up before out eyes. Well, maybe that's the case in the extremities of the nation but here in the Midwest, July was relatively cool. In western Iowa the month was the 117th coolest out of 131 years. In the northern Plains it was one of the coolest July's on record.

Now I must give credit where credit is due, it was a brutal July from the SW United States into Texas and Florida where in a number of cases it was the hottest ever witnessed. But what I find interesting is the fact nobody mentions how cool it was in the north central part of the nation. Apparently, since there was minimal suffering it wasn't worth any headlines. Good news doesn't sell in the world we live in!


What you can see from the data though is that the atmosphere does try its best to equalize imbalances. The NW flow that created the heat dome over the south and west was directly responsible for the comfortable conditions further northeast. That's usually the way it goes. Somebody's bad weather is typically someone else's good fortune. At least from a temperature standpoint, it's fair to say that overall this has been the summer of love here in the central Midwest.


Building on the persistence of this summers weather pattern, I do look for more of the same as we close out August and meteorological summer. Here's the 500mb flow the EURO is projecting August 14th. That ridge poking into Canada is carving out a strong northwest flow aimed directly at the Midwest. The diverts any serious heat to the south and west where it's prevailed all summer.

Here's the temperature departures associated with the set-up August 14th

The EURO ensemble control is even more emphatic with cool air thanks to a sharper trough August 15th.

Notice the temperature departures associated with that development.

This is all projected to come to fruition (in mid-August), and by then the days will have been getting shorter for 2 months and it gets harder by the day for heat to get established for any prolonged period of time. Could it be that we've seen the worst of what this summer will give us in terms of hot weather?


WAIT A MINUTE...

Just to sow doubt in what I laid out, the latest GFS shows the pattern going to this August 19th. A huge heat dome is blowing up over the central U.S.

Such a solution shows temperature departures in central Iowa are more than 30 degrees above normal!

I for one will be extremely surprised if the heat materializes as shown by the GFS. It certainly would be payback if it happened but I feel confident it won't. I guess time will tell.


THE WEEKEND AHEAD...

The coming weekend starts out fine but issues quickly arise with our next weather maker. Low pressure steams out of the Rockies Friday and by Saturday (Saturday night at the latest), warm advection is likely to kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms. That wave of energy passes and there should be a lull Sunday morning or early afternoon before a new round of storms develops ahead of a deepening surface low and its associated cold front late in the day. The latest guidance is a bit faster on the speed which would impact the severe weather threat limiting heating and the build-up of CAPE (instability). Mesoscale details yet to be resolved will make or break the severe potential but at least for now SPC shows a slight risk outlook Sunday afternoon or evening for much of the area. This may end up further east if the latest trends hold. We should have a much better idea of the overall set-up later Friday and especially Saturday.

Water vapor (PWAT's) does reach significant levels of 2.00 inches by Sunday afternoon meaning any storms that can get going will have the ability to be efficient rain producers.

Here's what models are suggesting for rain totals Saturday through Monday.


The GFS

The EURO

The Canadian GEM

The 12k NAM

Weekend temperatures look warm Friday and Saturday with readings in the mid 80s in most places. Sunday is not as cut and dried as the faster EURO and GEM have clouds and rain limiting highs to the upper 70s to low 80s. The GFS allows enough heating before rain cooled air arrives to get maximums in the low to mid 80s, (nearly 90 in the SE).


After a couple of pleasant days Monday and Tuesday, a new system slips in Wednesday with what appears to be another decent rain set-up for showers and storms. In general, the pattern looks quite energetic and active the next 7 days, somewhat out of line for the dog days of summer.


Have a fabulous weekend everyone and by all means, roll weather...TS


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