THE WINDS OF CHANGE...
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A COOL BUT DRIER WEEKEND...
As expected, Friday was a bit of a dog with cool, damp, and dreary conditions across the board. It was not a total waste though, as much-needed rain fell across the board. Doppler estimates in green indicate where a half an inch or more of rain may have fallen. We'll take it!
The sensible weather the remainder of the weekend appears straight forward with clearing skies and high pressure bringing dry conditions. Brisk winds are anticipated Saturday thanks to cold air advection, keeping highs confined to the low to mid 40s. Wind chills Saturday morning will be in the upper teens to low 20s before improving to the low to mid 30s in the afternoon. A rather fresh day!
Sunday starts in the mid 20s but with the core of the cold high drifting east, highs should respond well, reaching the upper 40s to low 50s with far less wind. A nice day for early March.
ONE MORE SPRING FLING...
What could be the last round of mild springlike temperatures for a while surges into the Midwest Monday and lasts much of next week. Highs are likely to be in the 60s Monday through Thursday, The EURO is emphatic the warmth could last into Friday, but that is not supported by other models. Whatever happens, my belief is that we undergo a pattern change that opens the door to colder temperatures after mid-March. In fact, by March 18th, highs in the Quad Cities are struggling to hit 40 after a 70 is shown 3 days before that.
The transition could also be accompanied by another precipitation threat of consequence later next week. That potential will become clearer in guidance by early next week.
All models are in reasonably good agreement that a re-alignment is taking shape in the long wave 500mb pattern after March 16-17th. A strong ridge pops over the NW U.S. initiating a full latitude trough over the eastern half of the nation. That could very well open the door for cold air to finally find its way back into the Midwest.
By March 23rd the EURO shows much of central Canada and the U.S. engulfed in cold and well below normal temperatures. Take a look.
Lows the morning of March 23rd are in the upper teens to low 20s.
While I currently don't see any big snow systems with the cold, that could change for some spot in the Midwest when the storm track is eventually defined. As it is, the EURO control does show an inch or two between March 18th and 23rd when the cold air is well established. Something to keep an eye on.
It remains to be seen how it all plays out, but the evidence is growing that winter won't go down without throwing a few more punches later this month. That said, this year has bucked the odds more than once, so I'm reluctant to say with high confidence this is a sure thing. Time will tell. The winds of change are blowing. Roll weather...TS
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