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Friends and lovers of weather, it's imperative that you know I must reach my financial goal or it's time for me to hang it up after 50 years. I'm doing the best I can here to win your support, and rest assured there is no pleasure in asking for money. I get that its hard times and that's why I'm doing all I can to keep TSwails a no pay site. No matter what, I'm here through December, but the 14th year beyond is dependant on you. If you can help my cause, I'm making a humble plea for anything you can swing, it all adds up. I'm $2,095 dollars (or 88% from my goal). Last but not least, I earnestly thank the 318 amazing individuals who have made such gracious contributions. You are all true treasures! Roll weather...TS

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A CASE STUDY, WHY DONATE TO SUPPORT THE SITE?

Close but no cigar! A powerful winter storm blasted central and eastern Iowa with 8 to 15 inches of snow Thursday night. My area avoided the heavy snow, and that was the outcome I expected and presented to you in several posts ahead of the storm. What I'm about to lay out is what's known in the TV business as a proof of performance spot. All forecasts are not created equal, and when a guy like me asks for funding, I feel compelled to show you why my forecast produced superior results and has value. This is not about competitors or other sources. It's simply about me. I'm not responsible for someone else's forecast, but I certainly am for mine. You make it, you OWN IT (good or bad).

TO THE POINT

Take a look at the final snow tallies from last nights event along highway 20, specifically from Independence to Dubuque (encompassing Buchanan, Delaware, and Dubuque counties). Amounts were generally 1-4".

At 1:38pm Thursday, ahead of the storm, the NWS issued a winter storm warning for those counties below until 9:00am Friday. In the text below it states to expect 4-8 inches of snow. Warning criteria is 6" in 24 hours.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
138 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Vinton, and Dubuque

138 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
  8 inches. Drifting and some blowing snow. Winds gusting as high as
  40 mph.
* WHERE...Benton, Buchanan, Delaware, and Dubuque Counties.
* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Friday morning commute.

Now, if you take a look at my mid-evening update post on the storm you can see my thoughts. There are two paragraphs highlighted in yellow that I feel are important and I will summarize at the end of the post below.

THE STORM IS UPON US...

The deepening storm is advancing across northern Missouri on its way towards southeast Iowa, expected to pass close to the Quad Cities during the late evening hours. The latest radar shows heavy snow falling in central Iowa with the rain snow-line east of Des Moines and Marshalltown and Waterloo. Rain and a few thunderstorms are developing ahead of warm front advancing towards the Iowa Missouri border. That will end soon if it already hasn't from the Quad Cities south.

With the track of the storm through SE Iowa into NC Illinois, the heavier precipitation will fall from the Quad Cities northwest in what's known as the deformation band. Much lighter amounts will be found southeast of the Quad Cities due to the dry slot near and east of the storm track. Any snow will be found over my far NW counties, especially north of a line from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque after midnight.

The evening runs of the HRRR and EURO show this for total precipitation through Friday morning. Had the storm tracked 100 miles further southeast all of that much needed precipitation would have soaked my local area.

The EURO

The HRRR

Snow of any consequence, as mentioned above, will be confined to the far northwest. The EURO shows this but it may be on the heavy side locally.

The HRRR, a convectively allowing hi-res model run every hour is lighter and I suspect might have the right idea, especially with the initially warm conditions and a slightly further track to the NW. I'm thinking 1-2 (maybe 3) inches of wet snow north of that line from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque.

The NWS does have winter storm warnings out for my counties from Waterloo to Dubuque for 4-8". I could see some potential for that from Manchester west to Waterloo and beyond. I have serious doubts about Delaware and especially Dubuque counties reaching warning thresholds.

MY CASE SUMMATION:

HIGHLIGHTED PARAGRAPH 1

I make it very clear, before any snow had started that the model I preferred (I showed it above, the HRRR) had the right trend. I felt amounts of 1-2" (maybe 3") would cover it north of a line from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque. I live in Dubuque and had 1.4", the regional airport 2". In Cedar Rapids, the airport had 2", although a few spots on the north side reported 2.8 to 3.0". My forecast verfied.

HIGHLIGHTED PARAGRPAH 2

In this paragraph I note that the NWS had winter storm warnings out from Waterloo to Dubuque for 4-8". I state that I could see that "potential" from Manchester west to Waterloo and beyond. But, I have serious doubts about Delaware and especially Dubuque counties reaching warning thresholds. In the end nobody reached the warning threshold of 6 inches in Dubuque, Delaware, or Buchanan. The range was more like 1-4 inches, lighter toward Dubuque. When I went to bed close to 3:00am, the winter storm warnings were still in place. I certainly don't have the authority, but if I did, I would have reduced them to advisories for 1-4 inches in the 3 counties I discussed in my update that evening. In fact, I would have done it for Dubuque and Delaware counties in my earlier post around 1:00 Thursday afternoon. Where I live here in Dubuque, the superintendent of one of the schools was notified of the 4-8 inch warning. She contacted me and was concerned about cancelling school Friday morning. Not only that, imagine the thousands of others who did not see my forecast for 1-2 inches and went to bed expecting 4-8 inches. There's a big difference in impacts and stress.

Weather is an imperfect science, we all know that. Honestly, I'm a huge fan of the NWS, their dedication, hard work, and service is unmatched in any other country. In this case, they were a bit slow to the punch. If I could see it, they could see it. They know it and they own it. I too have my own failures, and freely admit it. We can all co-exist,be respectful, and better for it. But, what you get from me is 50 years of experience and an unmatched commitment to accuracy. I personally believe there is value in my product (as shown in the case study) and I sincerely hope you will consider a donation to keep the site going. I'm 88% to my goal. As I often say, the future is up to you. Roll weather...TS ON A SERIOUS NOTE, IF I CAN'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 88% to my goal.

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