THREATS OF STORMS...
A powerful spring storm brought a significant tornado outbreak to parts of Iowa, Nebraska, and Missouri Friday. Multiple long tracked, violent tornadoes erupted in a highly sheared and unstable environment, striking several cities and causing substantial damage. In Nebraska, cities such as Lincoln, Elkhorn, and Omaha were impacted while Minden, in Iowa also suffered damage.
A friend sent me this image of an immense wedge tornado near Harlan, Iowa, Friday evening. What a classic picture. Talk about the grim reaper!
Another frightening shot not far from Shelby, Iowa, This is a multiple vortex tornado.
A storm earlier in the day in Nebraska indicated gate to gate shear of 225 mph. Debris from the tornado was lofted as high as 20,000 feet, nearly 4 miles high. The circulation was indicated to be 1.25 to 1.50 miles in diameter. That likely makes it an EF4 to EF 5 tornado. A rare and extremely dangerous tornado.
As of 2:00am Friday evening, 100 reports of tornadoes had been posted by the Storm Prediction Center. All told, a combined 214 reports of hail, wind, and tornadoes were received, with the count still growing.
The remnants of the powerful storms of Friday have advancing NE along a warm front overnight. Encountering far less instability, the storms have weakened and fallen below severe limits. The trend is expected to continue, and any remaining storms should depart the area by early Saturday morning. However, additional showers and storms are possible again later Saturday (and in some spots Sunday). More on that part of the weekend weather story below.
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ANOTHER DAY OF STORMS AROUND THE MIDWEST...
Saturday, with the first wave of energy departing, SW flow will send temperatures upwards as my now area resides on the mild side of a stationary boundary that sets up across the NW half of Iowa. The EURO has highs of 75 north to 80 south Saturday, that's a solid 20+ degrees warmer than Friday.
On top of that, moisture increases as well, with dew points surging into the low to mid 60s. That makes for a rather muggy spring day, with CAPE values soaring as high as 3,000 j/kg. on the HRRR
At least from the standpoint of instability Saturday, there is plenty of that to promote thunderstorm development. However, parameters are not nearly as good from a shear standpoint as what was seen out in SW Iowa yesterday. Not only that, forcing seems rather innocuous and diffuse until Saturday night. That could off-set the instability and keep severe weather from getting out of hand. I could certainly see some strong storms, but the prospects are problematic. We will know much more Saturday midday when we get a handle on key mesoscale details. My guess now is that the far south has the best chance of seeing severe storms, with late afternoon and night the most likely times. Here's the latest severe risk outlook area from SPC.
Sunday, any residual storms from Saturday night diminish during the morning, allowing CAPE and instability to climb again by late day. The question is how much? If we can get the sun out for a time, that increases the chances for additional storms late afternoon or evening when a speed max enters the region ahead of the ejecting western trough. At this distance, confidence is low on the extent and intensity of any storms. At the very least, scattered storms are expected, potentially stronger if we get into more instability. The southern half of my area is more favored for any severe storms. SPC show that in Sunday's severe weather outlook,
Despite any storms, Sunday will be another warm, muggy day, but highs should be down a few degrees into the low to mid 70s unless there is more sunshine than indicated.
With all the available moisture, additional rains of an inch or two are possible in spots between now and Monday, especially where stronger storms occur. Here's what models are suggesting for amounts.
The EURO
The GFS
Monday, the entire system and its associated cold front ejects to the east. Cooler and notably drier air sweeps in behind the front. That ends the storm and rain threat, with highs returning to the 65-70 range. Readings appear to warm quickly Tuesday as winds return to the south once again.
Have a great weekend and as always, roll weather...TS
