THROW A LOG OR TWO ON THE FIRE...
The cold air that will make our weekend far more fresh than it should be for late April, brought with it another round of severe thunderstorms late Friday. The bulk of the storms formed along the cold front as it approached the Mississippi around 2:00pm. They quickly intensified, moved east, and exited the area by early evening but not before prompting a tornado watch.
The bulk of the severe weather was confined to hail which was as large as 2" in diameter around Orion, Illinois. About 25 reports of severe weather came into the NWS office in the Quad Cities. 2 weak tornadoes were indicated which the NWS were doing damage surveys on Friday. Here's the warning polygons and reports that were filed with the Iowa Mesonet.
Here's a picture of some ominous looking clouds near Andover, Illinois sent to me by Leslie Wagenhals.
Friday's event just adds to what has been a very active and early severe weather season which typically doesn't reach it's peak until late May and early June. Just look at all the severe wind, hail, and tornado reports around the country so far this spring. 4,434 and counting.
Tornadoes have been frequent visitors with a distinct hot spot evident directly over may region-eastern Iowa and western Illinois. This map has not been updated since April 17th so it does not include the events of Thursday and Friday which were quite significant.
Inflation adjusted tornadoes are near the all-time maximum which is 514 at this point in the season.
GREAT DEAL... 3 NIGHTS FOR THE PRICE OF 2 MEMORIAL WEEKEND IN GALENA
THE LITTLE WHITE CHURCH AWAITS YOU
Get the gang together. Kick off summer with a free night at the church, one of the most unique stays in the Midwest. Call Carolyn at 563-676-3320 or email carolynswettstone@yahoo.com CLICK HERE
SEVERE WEATHER ON HOLD FOR NOW...
Severe weather won't be an issue for us anytime soon unless you consider freezing temperatures as part of the equation. A strong late season cold surge which shuts down the severe thunderstorm machine opens the door for sub-freezing low temperatures at least into Monday. The NW third of my area could see 3 consecutive nights with sub-freezing temperatures (including Friday night). A freeze warning is in effect for NW third of the area until 9:00am Saturday. The cold could kill or damage sensitive plants and vegetation that's unprotected into Monday.
All of the area is under a Freeze Watch for temperatures Sunday and Monday morning in the upper 20s to lower 30s. By the way, highs both Saturday and Sunday will range from 39 north to 44 south...a solid 20 degrees below normal.
Along with the chill this weekend will be very cold air aloft. 850mb temperatures (5,000 ft. up) will reach -9 to -10C by Sunday morning. The sharp gradient in temperatures from 850 to the surface creates steep lapse rates that will drive wind, clouds, and scattered snow showers. For very brief periods any snow showers could be intense with localized spots seeing a dusting, mainly in the far north. The HRRR shows the spotty hit and miss nature of the instability driven snow showers.
The GFS and EURO smooths the output and is more of a broad brush approach. Here's what they show for snow.
The EURO
In all honesty, I think most areas will have a decent shot at seeing snowflakes. While it's not extremely unusual to witness snow showers at this point in April, it is pushing the envelop!
Readings will improve some Monday and Tuesday but will continue very much on the chilly side. Highs in the 40s north to 50s south are expected. The GFS wants to break out a narrow band of rain, especially in the north half Monday night. The EURO is far less enthused and I think the GFS is overdoing QPF. Some scattered light showers north of I-80 makes sense with minimal totals.
Late next week we are likely to get back into the 50s, maybe 60 in the south before the next major wave of energy arrives with a rain threat next weekend. We'll worry about that when the time comes.
Fortunately nothing significant is expected before then. That is very good news as the Mississippi continues to rise. The NWS came out with new crest projections Friday. Below you can see the estimated dates and stages at various points along the river. The Quad Cities is pegged at 22' which is within 1 foot of the all-time record of 22.7' set in 2019. The crest is anticipated between May 2-4th.
That's all for now. Enjoy you freeze and any snowflakes this weekend. The 4th of July is just over 2 months away! Roll weather...TS
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