THUNDERING TO THE FINISH LINE...
Friday is day 4 of our summer heat wave and thanks to a cold front, it's the beginning of the end for this round of sizzle. However, before we see improvement we've got another cooker on the way and potentially active thunderstorms to deal with, especially Friday evening
The first issue that some may deal with Friday is residual thunderstorms from overnight convection in the north. Storms did develop over the NE after midnight but guidance indicates the majority of these will have exited or will dissipate early Friday. What's left may serve up some clouds or "outflow boundaries" pockets of rain cooled air. As the morning progresses clouds should rapidly thin giving way to sunshine. After that, robust heating is anticipated creating another sultry afternoon areawide. Highs should range from the low 90s north to the mid to upper 90s south. The EURO indicates maximums such as this which is pretty comparable to what we saw Thursday.
With moisture pooled over the region dew points again reside in the 70s. That creates some nasty heat index values that could approach 105 degrees.
Those are dangerous conditions for stressful outdoor work without proper rest and fluids. The NWS has excessive heat warnings in place over much of the region south of HWY 30. The rest of the north is under a heat advisory.
STRONG STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...
Following the days heating comes the potential for strong storms. All the heat and humidity will build up plenty of energy which is expected to be released in the from of thunderstorms Friday evening and night. CAPE (instability) is shown reaching 3 to 4,000 j/kg which is very robust if obtained.
The 3k NAM, a convective allowing model (CAM) suggests a supercell index of 15-25 around 6:00 in the evening.
Shear is not supportive of much in the way of tornadoes (maybe a couple brief spin-ups) but straight line winds could easily reach severe limits in spots as storms grow linear and create a cold pool. Max. updraft helicity on the 3k NAM shows the tracks of rotating supercells and their wind potential focused on my northern counties.
This simulated radar around 9:00 shows an active squall line diving into the area. That has the look of a wind producing event.
I very much expect severe thunderstorm watches will be issued for much of the area Friday evening. SPC has the entire area highlighted with an enhanced (level 3 of 5) severe weather outlook. That means moderate intensity severe thunderstorms are expected.
Aside from strong storms, water vapor is pooling ahead of the advancing cool front. The 3k has PWAT's nearing 3 inches just north of Dubuque. That's about 200 percent above normal. Very moist!
That could trigger torrential downpours in the stronger updrafts with 1-2" rainfall rates. Storms should be fairly progressive so rainfall totals are not expected to be extreme but where it rains, it is likely to pour for a time. The 3k suggests rainfall totals like this.
Guidance suggests the storms should be gone by early Saturday morning in the south and after that we begin the transition to NW flow, a pattern we've seen plenty of this summer. That implies temperature and humidity levels returning to seasonal summer levels. In other words, we are out of the soup. Nothing like thundering to the finish line.
Saturday's highs should be in the mid to upper 80s and Sunday it's back to the low to mid 80s. The pattern also should offer little if any rainfall Saturday through Wednesday of next week. Keep an eye to the sky later today and by all means, have a happy Friday! Roll weather....TS
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