TIS THE SEASON...

The first of two cold fronts has dug a deep trough into the center of the nation, forcing a surge of cool air that will only get colder as the week unfolds. The water vapor loop shows the coming air mass originating over the frozen tundra of the Arctic before it dives south. That is a very healthy and energetic system for early August. That said, we are entering the season where events like this become more common.

Here's a more traditional view by way of the hi res-visible GOES satellite. Notice the spin over the upper Midwest and a secondary mass of clouds further NW in Manitoba and Alberta. That's a secondary disturbance that will spin up into a well organized Clipper. It will set sail for Minnesota, where the center passes Thursday night, dragging a secondary cold front across the Midwest with even colder air Friday.

This animation shows the clipper as it advances towards the Great Lakes the next 36 hours. It will provide just enough forcing for some scattered showers Thursday night, especially north of I-80. However, the heavier rains fall near and north of the track, so rainfall locally will be quite light and generally well under 1/10th of an inch where it even falls.

Temperatures the next 24 hours will bounce around erratically. Thursday morning will start cold, with temperatures early in the low to mid 40s. These are wind chills at 7:00am Thursday.

As the clipper approaches, warm air advection due to SW winds will allow temperatures to rebound Thursday afternoon, reaching 64 north to 70 in the south. The system and it's cold front passes Thursday night with its spotty showers and a sharp turn to colder temperatures by Friday morning. The day starts with readings around 55 north to 60 south, about the time when stout cold air advection brings in strong NW winds, opening the door for the next thrust of cold air. Under a low overcast temperatures will move little during the day and at noon Friday the HRRR shows upper 50s north to lows 60s south. With wind gusts up to 30mph, it's going to be plenty fresh. I would suggest a jacket, especially in the morning.

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A CRISP WEEKEND AHEAD...

The coming weekend will be dry but crisp, more like early October. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will pleasant, generally in the mid to upper 60s Nighttime lows will be cold with lows as cold as 40 north to 45 in the south. If winds can go light Sunday morning, some upper 30s would be possible in the far north.

Similar conditions are likely Monday before warmer readings gradually build in next week with return flow. The EURO has some 80s as early as Wednesday, but I have some concerns it might be a bit aggressive and fast with the warm-up. Either way, it appears a few days of above normal temperatures are a good possibility by the middle of next week.

After the light showers Thursday night, chances of significant rain look low much of the next 2 weeks, due in large part to a pattern with minimal moisture and forcing. These are the rainfall departures shown on the EURO the next 2 weeks ending the 17th. The whole eastern half of the nation is shown below normal. Not a certainty, but a trend worth watching.

In conclusion, it's still officially summer, but it won't feel like it the next several days. Keep in mind, this is just a harbinger of things to come, hopefully well down the line. We will bounce back, probably in a big way, before we pack things up and move into the meat of fall and finally winter. For sure, the last week has been a pleasant change. Roll weather...TS