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TROPICAL DOWNPOURS...

The northern periphery of a heat dome is a location known for its ability to produce strong thunderstorms and excessive rain events. It's here where moisture pools and the storm track resides, often for days at a time. Fuel and energy is plentiful for renewed rounds of thunderstorm complexes capable of a month's worth of rain in a single event. This past week, such a set-up was situated from northwest Iowa into Minnesota and Wisconsin. Look at the observed 7 day rain totals. Many places in Minnesota have seen several inches of rain, with up to 8 inches in some local spots.

You can see this "ring of fire" effect situated NW of the heat dome, which was firmly planted over eastern Iowa and the Ohio Valley. Rainfall in the blue and pinks is 200-500% above normal. In the yellow and oranges covering my area, where the air was primarily sinking under the effects of massive high pressure, amounts were just 10 to 75% of normal.

Aloft, the nearly stationary 500mb pattern looks like this. Where it's dry, you fry!

Clearly the heat was SE of the big rains and their clouds. Around Chicago, the urban heat island effect caused the largest departures of up to 9 degrees.

Now that the overall pattern has been in place for close to a week, high levels of tropical moisture are in place. Available water vapor only deepens through the next 24–48 hours, with the EURO eventually showing PWATS (precipitable water vapor), of more than 2.20 inches Saturday evening.

That's about 3 standard deviations above what's typical, somewhere in the 90th percentile. That's really juicy air, and any storms that can flourish in an air mass like that can be extremely efficient rainfall producers. Tropical gully washers are very likely.

At least for Friday, a slight expansion in the heat dome is likely that forces the majority of the day's thunderstorms to the north of my area. That leaves very warm, humid conditions as the dominate type of weather. Highs will likely reach the upper 80s north to the low 90s south, with dew points around 70. Another sticky day is on tap.


Saturday, similar heat and humidity will prevail until late afternoon or evening. At that time, a cold front enters the region, acting on the days' instability. Thunderstorms are expected to rumble into existence and with plenty of CAPE, strong storms should rapidly form and move SE across the region. SPC shows at least a slight risk of severe weather, with wind and perhaps some hail the primary elements.

The other concern is excessive rains due to the extreme level of water vapor. Flash flooding is possible in spots with 1-2 inch rains in less than an hour, some locally higher. WPC shows a slight risk of excessive rains across my northern counties.

Further north in Minnesota, where storms have occurred overnight and will be ongoing parts of Friday through Saturday, heavier rains are anticipated on top of what I showed has already fallen this past week. Major flooding is expected on the Mississippi and many of its tributaries there. The additional rain will only compound the issues. This is the weekend rainfall forecast for Minnesota.

Add that to these totals below, and you can see why flooding is (or will be) occurring. This is likely to have a significant impact on the Mississippi in my area by early July as the water from tributaries as well as the main stem works its way south. Some additional rivers such as the Cedar, Iowa, Upper Iowa, and Wapsi could see rises as well. How much of an issue this becomes will depend on how much rain falls this weekend and whether the wet pattern continues the next couple of weeks, which seems more than likely.

The Mississippi in St Paul is expected to reach 20.1 feet June 27th, that's 3 feet over major flood stage. That would be one of the highest levels seen there since the 23.2' crest in 2001. Look at that wall of water, quite a spike!

Here's what is forecast for rain in my area Friday through Saturday. Most of this comes Saturday when the cold front arrives.


The EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM

The Weather Prediction Center

The National Blend of Models (NBM)

On a positive note, behind Saturday's front, slightly cooler and notably drier air arrives Sunday, allowing the weekend to end on a warm but quiet note. Happy Friday everyone and roll weather...TS


SPEND SOME TIME AT MY PLACE IN GALENA


It's vacation season and there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated AIRBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the 2023 top place to visit in the entire Midwest.


Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5-star AIRBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.


Again, we are an AIRBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!


MAKE US AN OFFER...

What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees and taxes that the big chains charge. Cleaning fees are also drastically reduced. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Let us work with you to find a time and price that works for you. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb


Carolyn and I will do all we can to make sure your stay is a memorable one. Please call or text Carolyn for more details and options and get a prime date while they are still available. Again, that's Carolyn at 563-676-3320.


Hope to see you soon,

Terry and Carolyn


7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA

1. It’s Steeped In History

2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America

3. The Restaurants Are Amazing

4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors

5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing

6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July

7. Did I Mention The Shopping?


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