TWO STEPS FORWARD, ONE BACK
Just a week ago today, severe storms plagued the area, with tornado watches posted for the entire region. 150 reports of severe weather were logged at the Storm Prediction Center. Much of the activity was focused on NW Missouri and the SE half of Iowa.
A 42-mile tornado developed in SE Iowa, later surveyed by the NWS as the longest tracked tornado in the Quad City NWS service area in almost 10 years. The storm raged for nearly an hour as it plowed northeast.
Basically, this was the first round of widespread severe weather in Iowa for the 2024 season. For now, the yearly number for tornadoes is 14, all of them reported a week ago April 16th. You can see the 1-day spike in severe storms at the bottom of the graphic, with plots of all individual severe weather types on the state map.
Storms have been far more active in Illinois, where there have already been 8 days with at least 10 or more severe weather reports. Tornadoes have been very active, with 40 reported to date. Only Ohio with 42 tornadoes has more nationally.
For the country as a whole, severe storms have been most numerous through the Ohio Valley and the deep south. You can clearly see that in the clustering of individual storm reports.
Despite 347 reports of tornadoes, there have only been a total of 5 deaths from 3 killer tornadoes through March 2024.
At this point in the year, the season is just slightly below normal for tornadoes nationally.
However, it's very early and the peak of the season is just starting to ramp up. May and June are the big months on average for tornadoes and strong storms in my local area.
By the way, historically in my area, there is a history since 1980 of long tracked strong tornadoes occurring from NW of the Quad Cities to near Iowa City and then back towards Ottumwa. Note the higher frequency shown there. The highway 30 corridor has been especially quiet, as well as NW Illinois and a swath of WC Illinois.
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TWO STEPS FORWARD, ONE STEP BACK...
Until this past weekend, we had been making progress with spring weather, including warmer temperatures and thunderstorms. However, the weekend was a big step back, especially at my place in Dubuque where we had a record cold high temperature of 39 Saturday followed by a record low of 24 Saturday. It was dog gone cold, with wind chills in the 20s.
We've bounced back into the 60s the last couple of days, but another cold front is clearing the south Tuesday morning. The coldest air is lagging well behind the front, allowing highs Tuesday to make it back into the low 60s north to the mid to upper 60s south. However, winds will be turning to the NE around another cold Canadian high, causing temperatures to dip significantly Tuesday night when lows in the north should be back around freezing, with mid to upper 30s elsewhere.
Wednesday promises to be another chilly day with passing clouds and highs that battle to reach the mid to upper 50s, a time of year when readings should be in the low to mid 60s.
After a cold start Thursday, return flow gets us back into warmer territory with maximum temperatures of 60-65. That also brings moisture back into the mix, setting the stage for an active period ahead, with regular chances of showers and storms Thursday night through Sunday night.
HEAVY RAIN, PERHAPS SOME STRONG STORMS...
The first crack at rain comes Thursday night and Friday and is associated with a slug of warm air advection that creates an active warm front. Elevated storms are possible Thursday night and Friday morning. Some surface based storms are a threat Friday, especially in the south. A few strong storms are possible here, assuming the instability gets that far north. It's too early and too close to say for sure at this distance. SPC does show a day 5 severe risk SW of the Quad Cities. Heavy rain is another by-product of the storms.
That energy ejects NE only to be quickly followed by another strong trough Saturday night and Sunday. It comes so fast that cool air never has a chance to penetrate the region after the first system. If anything, the air is even warmer and more moist, with dew points in the 60s this weekend. Highs will be somewhat dependent on additional storms, especially Sunday. However, there is strong evidence that readings in the mid to upper 70s are looking likely. Another round of "potentially" strong storms are possible late Sunday if things line up.
Between the various rounds of rain and storms, significant rainfall is possible in many locations. Here's what the EURO and GFS are suggesting for rainfall totals Thursday night through Sunday night.
The EURO.
The GFS
You know the saying, April showers bring May flowers. If indeed that is the case, they should be plentiful this year. Have a solid day and roll weather...TS
