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WARMER, BUT NOT NECESSARILY NICE...
We've all been shivering the past week or so thanks to a pattern loaded with Arctic air. Numerous locations have had sub-zero lows for much of that period. In Dubuque, for example, lows 7 of the last 8 days have been below zero. Tonight will make if 8 of 9. That's a serious run of cold!
As we've been advertising for some time, warmer weather is on the way, and we'll get a taste of it Sunday as brisk SW winds send highs into the upper teens to low 20s. Monday, the warming strengthens even further, with highs climbing close to freezing. If we didn't have so much snow, we might even enter the 40s, especially across the south. Not this time.
The warming is a good news bad thing though, at least initially, it produces a round of precipitation that's generated by warm air advection. As early as Monday morning, some light snow or mixed snow and freezing rain may clip the area. While this is all very light, a few places in the NW third could see up to an inch of wet snow, further SE the snow may mix with freezing rain creating some slick driving conditions.
This disturbance zips rapidly by, only to be followed by a stronger impulse with more moisture and forcing later Monday night into early Tuesday. It has the potential to lay down some 2-3 inch snowfall totals in my NW counties, especially NW of the Quad Cities. This will be a wet, sticky snow with marginal temperatures. From the Quad Cities SE a wintry mix is possible before precipitation changes to all rain and ends.
Here's what models are suggesting for snow totals. Due to uncertainty in thermal profiles, confidence in snow and ice placement (and amounts) are somewhat low. In fact, temperatures a degree or two warmer could even reduce snow chances further NW. (Some models such as the 12K NAM show that potential). We will know more Sunday and if necessary, some advisories may be issued for slick travel. Here's what I have so far on snow.
The GFS
The EURO
The 10K GEM
The 12K NAM (the least snowy by far...an outlier)
As for freezing rain, amounts are light, but it doesn't take much of that to create havoc.
The GFS
The EURO
After this disturbance departs, temperatures and dew points the remainder of the week should be just warm enough to ensure that additional disturbances coming out of the SW flow will produce rain. Starting Monday, dreary damp chilly weather is expected, Fog chances will also go up with abundant low level moisture from melting snow. So yes, we get our thaw, but it won't be pretty.
That's all for now, until next time roll weather...TS Also, please consider a donation to the site as my annual fund-raiser continues. Anything you can contribute would be immensely appreciated. CLICK HERE TO HELP.
