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WASN'T THAT SPECIAL...

MY FUND RAISING CAMPAIGN ENDS FRIDAY

THE FUTURE OF THE SITE DEPENDS ON YOU. 

Hi everyone, as you know, TSwails.com is a no-pay site; existing on voluntary subscriptions or personal donations. If you find value in the site, I'm asking kindly that you make the donation you feel is worthy. I'm suggesting $20.00, roughly a nickel a day. Less than 5% of my readers donate, so your gift is not only appreciated, it helps immensely. Your contribution, whatever you can swing, supports the content, infrastructure, and operational costs. Thanks for anything you can do.


A SHORT MESSAGE, SHOOTING FROM THE HIP...

By the time most of you read this, I will be prepping for (or perhaps will have had) hip replacement surgery. Many years of sports, running, and a nasty case of arthritis has caused my right hip socket to go bone on bone. I've opted to have robotic assisted anterior hip replacement. By noon Tuesday, it will be out with the old and in with the new. I plan to continue my usual posts, but the length is conditional on how smooth things go. Just so you know, I'm not slacking off because of the amazing weather.


WHAT A SPECIAL DAY...

As we've seen many times this winter, the combination of SW winds, dry air, relatively dry soil, lack of any snow cover, and abundant sunshine allowed temperatures to soar all across the Midwest. Late in the day Monday, at least 60 stations were within 3 degrees of records, and more than 30 had made that distinction all the way to the Canadian border.


In my area, new record highs were set in Cedar Rapids and Dubuque. The only place in Iowa that did not reach at least 70 was Burlington, with a max. of 68. I have spots in my yard where I could actually mow if I was anal enough to do it! Lots of heavy buds on the trees.


While many areas will continue to see well above normal temperatures into Thursday, slowly but surely conditions will be going downhill as moisture and eventually showers and storms move in from the west. However, rain will not be an issue Tuesday and despite some passing high clouds, we'll get enough sunshine to post highs of 69-74. With thicker clouds and perhaps a light morning shower, Wednesday cools slightly, with highs more in the range of 64-69.


Thursday will be a tricky day for temperatures due to a nearly stationary front which sets up shop near or just south of I-80. North of the front, cooling east winds enhanced by the chilly waters of Lake Michigan could keep highs near HWY 20 in the upper 40s to near 50. The south, especially south of I-80 enjoys another toasty day with highs of 65 to perhaps 70 in the far south.


WELCOME RAIN RETURNS

By this time moisture has reached SE Iowa and WC Illinois which will fuel rain. Some spots near or just south of the warm front could see some scattered strong storms where instability is greatest. Again, mesoscale details unknown at this point will determine where and how much of a threat any storms will be across the south. Further north scattered storms are also possible, but these would be elevated in nature with some hail the primary concern. Most spots should see another nice rain, and some 1/2 to 1 inch amounts are possible, heaviest where thunderstorms occur. Here's what models are suggesting for totals early in the game.


The EURO

The GFS


The EURO even spits out a few snowflakes towards the end of the event Friday evening in the far north. Most of the flakes should stay north of us for now.


The mention of snow does evoke the thought of cold air, and we are going to see more and more of that in the next 2 weeks. We feel a noticeable cool-down Friday night and Saturday, before a much stronger punch of cold polar air arrives Saturday night. Next Monday, the 500mb flow is buckled straight in from Canada.



That brings a healthy shot of wind driven cold into the region Sunday-Tuesday. Monday looks to be a very raw day.


Tuesday starts with temperatures below freezing as far south as central Mississippi.


Beyond that we get a small recovery by the end of next week only to see another strong cold front drop temperatures well below normal come March 26th.


This may not look all that cold, but one must remember the days have been getting longer and the sun more direct for 3 months. The same air mass in early January would have confined highs to the teens, with 850 temperatures near -10.


I have not ruled out the potential for accumulating snow at some point in the next two weeks, as temperatures aloft (especially the last 10 days of March) will at times will be cold enough to get the job done. Here's what the ensembles of the EURO and GFS show. The control runs are really aggressive, but I'm not ready to go down that road yet. The ensembles for your viewing pleasure.


The EURO

The GFS


All things considered, while we're well past the worst of winter's cold, it can still get ugly and when I see a 500mb chart like this March 27th, I think that potential should be conveyed. This is a gnarly looking pattern that screams cold, nasty weather. Something that has peaked my interest.


Meantime, here's to another nice late winter day today. I'll see you after surgery. Roll weather...TS


P.S. My fund-raising campaign ends Friday. I'm about 300 dollars from reaching my goal. If you use the site and find value in it, please consider a contribution. Thanks to you who have already helped the cause!

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