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WHERE FOR ART THOU SNOW...

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WHERE'S THE DANG SNOW?

If somebody would have told me October 1st that I would have not seen so much as an inch of snow going into December 17th I would have puked. Honestly, I did not see that coming and I don't know what it is about me and snow but it doesn't like me. In fact it hates me, which is sad because I rather like it (make that love it)! It seems as though the older I get, the less of it I get. Maybe that's climate change or old age is messing with my memory. At any rate, here's the seasonal snowfall totals so far. A hard map for me to look at.

Compared to the mean I'm squarely at zero! Yup, zero percent of the mean which by now is about 10 inches. Give me a break, that's hard to do especially when you consider the last two years had several inches fall in October giving many of us a white Halloween. Of course it was all gone for Christmas but that's another story.

I'm not alone in my suffering. For most of the nation its been bad sledding with the exception of the mountains and far northern U.S.

There is still plenty of time to get back in the game but I sure don't see much of anything before Christmas so it's looking like we are on track for another brown one this year. Not that its unusual. In a typical year the chances of a white Christmas range from 30 percent in the south to about 50 percent in the north.

So where I'm living, the odds indicate I would see a white Christmas about every other year. The problem with that is the odds have not been working out as its been years since Christmas was white in any meaningful way. Theoretically the longer you go without meeting the odds, the better your chances are with each passing brown year. Hmmm, how come I keep rolling 7. I guess there's nothing to do but keep on dreaming. Good old Bing can help me out with that.

Now that I have dried my tears, one thing the central U.S. has seen plenty of is severe weather. The unusual warmth of the past week has produced two major severe weather outbreaks. Between them, more than 1,100 severe weather reports were tallied by SPC including 112 tornadoes. No wonder it's not snowing.


THE WEEKEND

The weekend ahead promises to be more seasonal and for the most part dry. There is a chance that some light snow or a rain snow mix could clip my counties in the far southeast Friday night. The GFS and Canadian GEM are showing some very light accumulations. The EURO is a whiff. Again, the lack of consistency and placement makes it hard to have confidence in any solution. If anything happens it won't amount to much (the worst case scenario a dusting). Here's what models are showing for totals in this minor event.


The GFS

The GEM

The EURO

Weekend temperatures point towards highs in the mid to upper 30s Friday and the low to mid 30s Saturday and Sunday. Overall, those readings are pretty close to normal. Clouds will be on the increase Friday with the weak disturbance passing to the southeast but they should break out Saturday as drier air moves in. That will lead to sunny skies Sunday. Fine weather to finish up that holiday shopping. Yea, I'll be in the fray.


That gets us to Christmas week and there's not much happening until Christmas Eve or Christmas. Around that time most guidance indicates the potential for some light precipitation. Some show a bit of snow, others just light showers. Amounts are small and impacts look minimal if models hold to current trends. Temperatures start mild on Monday and then cool considerably by midweek. After that its a crap shoot with a wide range in solutions toward Christmas Eve and Christmas due to differing storm tracks with the system due in at that time. We've got many days to get the details resolved.


With that, I will conclude this post with hope in my heart that snow arrives for Christmas. The odds are in my favor but the models could very well have other ideas. Happy Friday and roll weather...TS


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