82 DAYS AND COUNTING...
The latest data continues to point towards a solid week of wintry weather for the Midwest. The storm that pounded the Midwest with severe thunderstorms Monday (13 tornadoes in Iowa alone), really wrapped up and has been bringing high winds to much of the north-central U.S. Winds around Chicago Wednesday reached up to 63mph. Rochester, Minnesota had a gust of 61mph.
Over the next 48 hours colder air will filter south as winds gradually veer to the north allowing colder air to start dominating the pattern. This will be an abrupt change in a winter that nationally ranks as the 6th warmest nationally.
Notice all the locations in red around the eastern half of the country that experienced record or near record warmth below.
With the jet going into this configuration by Monday the cold that's been absent from the pattern is free to impinge on the Midwest.
By Sunday the EURO has temperature anomalies at 5,000 feet that look like this.
On the edge of the dark purple and blue anomalies an active storm track will exist along a strong thermal boundary. That's where several snow systems are shown but at least individually on the latest GFS these don't put down much snow in my local area. Here's the first system Friday night early Saturday with its surface pattern followed by the snowfall output.
The second disturbance is shown Sunday night Monday. The surface pattern followed by the combined snowfall of the 2 systems.
Last but not least the 3rd clipper Tuesday night. Here's the surface features and the total snowfall for all 3 systems.
As it stands now with the GFS the worst of the snow stays west of my region. I'm very confident in that idea for the first system. However, the EURO has been more aggressive with system 2 and has much higher amounts further east. If the EURO solution of more amplification is correct (and it has merit), it will make the GFS look bad, Here's what Wednesday's 12z EURO showed for snow from the first 2 systems combined. Compare that to what the GFS has above. Big difference!
As I mentioned last night things are going to change but Thursday we should get more reliable trends, especially on system 1. That will be the 82 consecutive day in Cedar Rapids without an inch of snow. My pain runs deep. Roll weather...TS