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WARMTH, STORMS AND A LITTLE SNOW...

It was a beautiful day across the Midwest Saturday afternoon with the warmest readings since February. There will be some more clouds in the skies on Sunday but temperatures will still be mild and above normal:

Warm air will continue to get pumped into the Midwest as a storm moves through. Here's the projected surface pattern Sunday evening:

At 7pm the low pressure center is still out in western Iowa and there's little action south of the low along the cold front. This is likely because how warm it will be and a cap (warm layer aloft) will be in place in western Iowa, Kansas and Oklahoma. If storms do break the cap and get going, then they could be strong and even severe. Here's the latest risk from the SPC:

The risk has remained "slight" because of the cap and timing (since storms likely won't get going until close to sunset). The main risk will be strong winds and large hail Sunday night.

This storm will linger in the Upper Midwest and will even draw down some cooler air on Monday in parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Here's the surface pattern Monday afternoon. You can see a deformation band all the way back through South Dakota extending from the low over Lake Michigan:

There's a good chance of snow within that band, but there's low confidence on how much will fall. Here's the latest snowfall outputs from the GFS and Euro:

The European is much more bullish and so I'm leaning more toward the GFS solution with less snow. There will be plenty of moisture available so I wouldn't be surprised to see a solution in between the two. Here are the probabilities of an inch of snow from the Weather Prediction Center (which shows a blend of 60+ models):

The highest chances are in South Dakota and just north of Minneapolis, through Wisconsin and UP. The snow will be pretty sloppy and shouldn't stick around very long. Temperatures will dip briefly on Tuesday behind this storm and then things warm back up. Check out the temperature departures through the week:

It looks like the spring pattern will be sticking with us for a while and we'll see more sun this week than last!

RK

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© 2020 Terry Swails