CLIPPER PARADE TARGETS THE AREA

A well-advertised potent clipper system sure left a mark across the area with areas of heavy snow and created quite a mess on the roads Saturday evening and overnight. This is the first of what will likely be numerous clipper systems to impact the area - some directly and some just glancing. Winter is certainly off to a fast start!

Running the latest European model out a week you can see there are multiple snow systems swinging through the region. These are generally lighter snow producers with the strongest apparent system (Tuesday/Wednesday) likely missing to the north of the area. That would actually bring a bit of warmth from the bitter cold with strong warm air advection ahead of it.

Latest model guidance in fact warms the Quad Cities area up to near 40 with that clipper to the north before a strong shot of cold air looks likely behind another clipper system that is looking more likely to directly impact the area around Thursday/Friday. The way things look now, sub-zero temperatures could take over next weekend as a very strong area of high pressure allows efficient radiational cooling under clear skies, calm wind and fresh snow.

Analogs are strongly onboard with the Arctic outbreak next weekend with temperature anomalies pushing 10-20 degrees below normal. One thing to note on this is also the warming on the west coast of the US as a strong ridge looks to take over. This could further keep our pattern active, and colder, with a storm track pivoting over the region under cold northwest flow.

The 500mb pattern is quite locked in on this pattern on the latest European Ensemble forecast. That ridge out west is further indicated to translate farther east which would switch us to warmer and drier conditions mid-month. I don't want to jump on that likelihood yet as we have seen some flopping back and forth on this warming in the middle of December. I think it is the most likely option but I want to see some strong consistency first especially as this is over a week out.

LATE-WEEK CLIPPER - THE GFS

LATE-WEEK CLIPPER - THE Euro

LATE-WEEK CLIPPER - THE Euro Ensemble

While overall confidence is limited on these clipper systems, there is a signal late this week a clipper could impact the area Thursday/Friday with the GFS being earlier and the Euro being later. Both are somewhat similar in hitting our area with a near-direct hit.

The European Ensemble is pretty confident with our area in the center of the clipper system. This snow would be rather light and fluffy given the cold air that is expected to be in place so it does not take a lot of moisture to cause some impacts.

There is a less confident signal for the next-weekend clipper system, which is not surprising given how far we are away at this point. We're just watching it for now.

Bottom line: The pattern remains active and colder regionally with several systems potentially bringing snow and shots of cold air.

Have a great Sunday, friends!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart