A WEEK OF UPS AND DOWNS; WIND, RAIN AND SNOW

The week ahead will feature several storm systems across the Great Lakes region as an active storm track sets up. When it's all said and done the overall snow chances are somewhat muted, but we are tracking a few snow events, a rain event, and with every system passage we will be dealing with up and down temperatures as well as some potential windy conditions.

The higher snow chances likely fall later in the work week locally, in the Thursday/Friday time frame as depicted above.

MONDAY we are watching a fairly weak system moving through the area that may put out some light snow, especially west of the Mississippi River. Dry air and limited forcing will keep the snow chances pretty limited, but there may be a few slick spots at daybreak Monday.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT what looks to be the strongest storm system in the next week will mainly track to the north of the area keeping potential heavy snow accumulation up that way. We actually might end up with light rain showers as strong, gusty southerlies pump in some warmer air to the region. Once a cold front passes Tuesday evening temperatures will begin to crash.

Tuesday night's winds could be rather intense given the strength of the storm system to the north. One high-resolution model (RRFS) is indicating gusts potentially in the 50-60mph range. That is potentially damaging wind, and especially problematic for any Christmas decorations on the lawn. You'll want to make sure those are secure and deflated before this comes roaring through.

Even the lower-resolution European model has widespread 45-50mph gusts (it's in knots in the map above) by Wednesday morning. This will be quite the Arctic Cold Front!

Cold air infiltrates by late week with sub-zero temperature remaining on the menu for the weekend. Model blend only has highs Saturday in the single digits! I think this may be too cold as the snowpack in the area may take a rather significant hit with the warmth on Tuesday. The window of above-freezing temperatures is limited, but could be enough to melt away some of our increasing snowpack.

The GFS

The Euro

THURSDAY we are watching what looks like the best chance for accumulating snow locally with yet another clipper system. Both the GFS and Euro are locked on with subtle differences in timing, but much bigger differences in strength. The GFS is notably stronger with the system and has more snow associated with it in the neighborhood of 2-5" of snow. The Euro is more moisture starved and is in the 1-2" range.

A look at the 50 members of the European Ensemble (50 different runs of the model with slightly initial conditions) are all pretty aligned with snow accumulation late Thursday into Friday. A 10:1 mean is a little over half an inch, but since this snow will be light and fluffy, you can probably double this amount for a more realistic model average of about 1"+. It's not much, but it is something to watch.

The GFS ensemble has about 1" of snow locally, so for now, we aren't expecting much in the way of snow the next 10 days.

If you love a week of a variety in the weather, this will certainly be an interesting one. The good news is, aside from the wind Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, most of the fast moving systems this week do not appear to be too impactful. With the clippers in particular, systems can change somewhat dramatically, so we will need to watch them closely.

Have a wonderful week everyone!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart