STORMS AND SPRING SWINGS...
Friday was a day of showers, storms and warmth and that's what's on the table for Saturday. But it will be even warmer Saturday afternoon. Check out these temperatures... 10-20 degrees above normal!
All of this warmth is ahead of a cold front that will roll through the Midwest Saturday. This front will bring in some moisture and lead to instability through the day. Here's the surface pattern Saturday afternoon:
That will keep dew points close to 60...
And PWATS (precipitable water) amounts over an inch:
Ahead of the front, the atmosphere will destabilize and CAPE values are looking like this in the late afternoon:
Around 1500 J/kg across Iowa... closer to the secondary low and dry line there's CAPE values closer to 3500! When you put it all together, here's a model representation of the storms in the afternoon:
There are indications there will be one wave of precipitation late Saturday morning, then storms will spark along the cold front late Saturday afternoon/evening. There are a lot of things that have to come into play for strong storms in my local area, but the potential exists with the high instability that will likely be in place. Timing will be key though and if storms don't initiate before sunset, then the risk for strong/severe storms will go down. As it stands now... here's where the highest risk for severe weather is expected from the SPC:
These storms will be capable of producing strong winds and large hail as they roll through. Wind shear is not expected to be very high, so the tornado threat is fairly low. These storms move east of the Mississippi after midnight and could still pose a wind threat as storms become more linear. Regardless of the strength, with the high moisture levels, there should be some decent rainfall totals by the end of the day:
And a tighter view of my local area:
Behind the storms, a beautiful day will unfold for Easter Sunday. Temperatures expected to be near and above normal with dry air and sunshine:
Before I go.. I have to give an SOI update. Terry's been talking about it taking and it has fallen.. even further!
That -34 will show itself later on this week with below normal temperatures. The temperature departures on the GFS tell the story.. by the end of the week temperatures will fall below normal in the Midwest:
Ah.. the wonders of Spring. I hope everyone has a Happy Easter!