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Thursday marks the start of June and meteorological summer so it's high time we enjoyed some summer weather. One of the key long range indicators for Midwest warmth is the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). When it cycles into phases 4-6 of its 8 indicators, the odds are good the thermometer goes up.

The past couple of weeks the MJO has been passing through phases 1-3 known for being cool in May and June. That's verified as you can see by the 14 day temperature departures.

Now the MJO is set to make a run into the warmer Midwest June phases. Below you can see the the June temperature correlations for phase 3 and 4. (follow the dotted green lines to see the daily progression out of 3)

It's interesting to see the CFSv2 long range products falling into line with the MJO. Here's the temperature departure for the 10 day period June 10th-20th.

The 16 day temperature outlook from the GEFS ensembles looks this way.

Here's the CFSv2 45 day outlook ending in the heart of summer July 15th.

Whether the models are right or not, they are indicating the transition to summer is underway. It makes sense considering the time of year. Roll weather...TS

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