RED, WHITE, AND BLUE SKIES?
Happy 4th of July everybody! While I'm a bit concerned with the overall mental state of the Union I am proud to be an American. A tip of the hat to all those who have sacrificed or served to create this place we call home. Hopefully as citizens, we can start thinking about what we have in common instead of what we don't. Afterall, this is the "United" States. Let's get it together, one nation with equality and justice for all!
When it comes to 4th of July weather around the Midwest, it's usually a safe bet to put your money on warm humid conditions about the time fireworks fill the skies. This year should be no exception. Here's what you can expect for highs. Most of these readings are very close to normal.
Of course, there's always the humidity to deal with and dew points in the 70s will be a force to deal with. The pool or beach will be a refreshing option.
Heat index values could very well top 90 over much of my area. The warmth and humidity will generate an unstable atmosphere, especially late in the day and into the evening. CAPE is forecast to look like this.
Fortunately, forcing is relatively weak but there will be enough instability for widely scattered (pulse) storms go up. It's nearly impossible to pin-point the most likely spot for development in a situation like this. All you can do is broad-brush the region with 30% pops and hope any hit and miss storms miss your barbecue or fireworks display. The EURO shows most of the storms west of my area at 7:00pm 4th of July evening.
The 3k NAM has this at 6:00pm for storm coverage.
The bottom line is that any storms that do get going will be slow movers with the potential to produce some quick downpours. These are generally going to be confined to the late afternoon and evening hours. More important, these look to be few and far between. Most areas will not see the storms and even where they occur, they are not likely to be around long. Make your plans accordingly and have yourself an awesome holiday. Happy birthday USA! Roll weather...TS