A FEISTY WEEK OF WEATHER

There are numerous events coming into play this week that will make for an interesting, challenging, and perhaps impactful period of weather. This comes after several days of fantastic conditions, which culminated in highs Monday that were in the low to mid 80s in all locations. As toasty as it was, humidity was not a factor, with dew points only in the low 50s. If it wasn't warm enough for you, just wait until Thursday when record highs into the 90s are possible, especially from I-80 south.

The satellite shows the initial hurdle we're facing in the form of an upper air low grinding NE through the Ohio Valley. Notice how the circulation is pulling moisture and clouds into the region from the east Monday evening. While not a rare occurrence, it's far more common for this to happen from the S/SW.

Over the next 24-48 hours, low level moisture will continue to increase due to the slow movement of the system and its ability to continue advecting it into the Midwest. The end result may be some widely scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. As temperatures warm to the convective temperature, there should be enough instability with CAPE nearing 1,000 j/kg to at least pop a handful. The radar below shows how they came to life late Monday in parts of central and eastern Illinois.

The HRRR simulated radar early Tuesday evening shows even less in the way of development than Monday. At best, 20 percent of the area is shown with a shower. In other words, about 80 percent (or more of us) will remain dry. For those lucky enough to get under any of these hit-and-miss showers, a brief downpour could occur, but little more than 1 to 2 tenths of an inch is expected.

In the end, it's more likely most of the area will see another warm dry day with only a slight increase in humidity, but nothing that's out of the ordinary. Highs of 80-82 are consistently shown on the HRRR.

Wednesday, we should add on a couple more degrees to highs, sending us into the low to mid 80s. There is a slight chance of diurnal thunderstorms but with heights building and warm air aloft, that should keep the potential low and isolated.

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A SIZZLER THURSDAY...

Thursday is an intriguing day in terms of heat and perhaps thunderstorms. In fact, a few storms could catch the area late Wednesday night, but confidence is low on the potential. The time frame to watch would be well after midnight when a strong warm front lifts into Iowa on the nose of a 30kt. low level jet. Scattered elevated storms could form north of it. Another scenario is that an MCS, (Mesocale Convective System) develops in Nebraska Wednesday evening and then rides the warm front eastward into Iowa and my area later that night. We will have a better idea of how that threat unfolds later Tuesday.

If there are any storms around early Wednesday, they will quickly dissipate as the warm front advances northward. Very warm air is expected to make a surge into at least the southern half of my area. 850 temperatures (a mile up) are shown, hitting 24 C. in SE Iowa and WC Illinois.

Closer to the surface at 925mb (only 1/2 mile up), readings are shown reaching 31 C. on the EURO.

This super warm air generates a formidable CAP that will clear out skies and allow temperatures to explode. The EURO EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) is off the charts, thanks to projected highs of 98 to 99 south of a line from Mt. Pleasant to Galesburg. The north, while hot, gets a later jump on temperatures with the warm front passing mid to late morning holding highs closer to 90.

No matter what, Thursday has the potential to be flat out hot. With most records in the range of 90-94, it's very possible some could be surpassed. At mid-afternoon, dew points have surged into the mid 60s. The combination of heat and moisture will generate some impressive instability, with the EURO showing CAPE reaching 3,000 j/kg north.

The 12K NAM has CAPE over 4,000 j/kg in the NE half. That is explosive.

With a dry line/cold front entering this dynamic energy, the potential is there for severe storms. The issue that could very well kill it is the warm air aloft that creates what's known as a CAP. The best analogy to understanding the CAP is a can of pop. You shake it up, especially on a warm day, and you know when you pop the top it's going to come gushing out of the can. It's very similar to the atmosphere. If the warm air aloft can contain the energy, nothing but sunshine is the end result. However, bust the CAP and giant thunderstorms will explode before your eyes, some producing severe weather in less than 1/2 hour. It's an incredible sight to behold! Here's an example of a thunderhead that's broken the CAP and exploded vertically, much like an atomic bomb.

At least at this point, it appears the CAP has a good chance of holding until the front slips off to the east. That is not a certainty just yet, so the situation will need to be monitored due to the extreme instability that's expected, especially east of the Mississippi. However, the update just issued from SPC has pushed the level 2 risk east of my area, confirming my thoughts the CAP holds and we largely see a dry frontal passage.

So, despite opportunities for rain Tuesday-Thursday, none are especially good or likely to bring much in the way of precipitation. Here's what guidance is showing for rain totals through Thursday night. Don't count on much locally.

The EURO

The GFS

The 12K NAM

After the cold front exits Thursday night, dry weather appears to be with us right on through the coming weekend. I look for highs to be back in the range of 75 north to 85 south on Friday. Cooling continues Saturday and Sunday, with readings slipping to 72 to 82 Saturday and 68 to 78 north to south Sunday.

That's where things stand for now. Make it a strong day and roll weather...TS