- May 31, 2018

SUMMER, FALL, AND WINTER....

Things are a little slow in the weather office as we quickly approach meteorological summer (June-August). That said, I thought I would shed a little light on the meteorological seasons and why guys like me prefer this way to classify our climate.

First and foremost, the four meteorological seasons were developed for weather-observing and forecasting purposes since they are more closely tied to our monthly civil calendar than the astronomical seasons, which can start on a different date each year.

The meteorological seasons are always 90 to 92 days, depending whether or not it's a leap year. This breakdown makes it much easier to calculate seasonal statistics since every season starts on the first of the month, rather than the 20th to 22nd with the astronomical seasons.

Meteorological Seasons Change Every 3 Months

So essentially the 4 seasons are grouped into four 3-month periods based on similar temperatures.

In the Northern Hemisphere:

Meteorological winter begins on December 1. It includes the months of December, January, and February (DJF)
Meteorological spring begins on March 1 and includes the months of March, April, and May (MAM).
Meteorological summer begins on June 1. It includes the months of June, July, and August (JJA).

Meteorological fall begins on September 1 and includes the months of September, October, and November (SON).

So this is why June is the start of summer in my world. I expect it will be warmer than normal but the Climate Prediction Center is thinking more on the normal side. Here's what CPC is showing. I think the northwest flow CPC is frpicting is too amplified and too far west.

Precipitation looks like this. I lean towards near to above normal amounts myself as the ring of fire should be in close proximity allowing thunderstorm complexes to make regular intervals.

Just for kicks here are the long term projections for fall and winter from CPC. I'm not adding my 2 cents since I'm not good enough to make calls that far out. Here's Fall. Warm with equal chances for normal precipitation.

Here's winter: Temperatures don't look too bad with a weak El Nino expected. The heaviest precipitation stays west and south. The temperatures would imply near normal snowfall but that's impossible to call in late May.