EXCESSIVE HEAT AND STORMS...

The 2018 American Meteorological Society convention is over here in Santa Fe. It's amazing what I've learned despite 41 years working in the field. I thank my station KGAN CBS2 and FOX 28 for allowing me the opportunity to attend. Now I get to explore the city a bit before flying home Saturday night.

Also I was reminded that there are now more than 13,000 members of the AMS. When I got my seal in the early 80s I was admitted as member 300. I'm getting a little long in the teeth!

That brings me to the weather back home an it contains two big elements through Sunday. One is heat and the other strong thunderstorms. Of course the heat has already kicked in and will bake my area through Saturday, perhaps parts of Sunday especially east of the Mississippi. In the satellite image the heat ridge is keeping skies sunny over the central Midwest today. A cold front is clearly defined over the Plains. It will bring relief but should also bring storms Saturday night.

Before any storms we deal with the heat. The National Weather Service in the Quad Cities has all of my area under an excessive heat warning through Saturday

Here's some additional details issued by the NWS in a situational report.

The thunderstorms threat will be conditional on the timing of the cold front. There are some key differences between models. The hi-res 3k NAM is the most ominous for my area bring a strong squall line into the region Saturday night. It would indicate the potential for strong damaging winds with ample instability. Here's what the Storm Prediction Center is showing for severe weather risks today, Saturday, and Sunday.

Heavy rainfall is also likely for some parts of the central Midwest. Again, this threat will be contingent on where and when storms occur ahead of the cold front. Here's 3 rainfall forecasts.

The 3K NAM

The NAM

The GFS

Better conditions will return for Monday but things will heat up again just in time for the 4th of July. More on that once we get through the heat and potential storms of Saturday night. Roll weather...TS