- Sep 29, 2019

WHO TURNED THE FAUCET ON?

As Terry said in his last post, it has been soggy around here lately. Some of us needed rain and then got too much too soon. An example is what happened Friday night. Check out these rainfall totals -

From nearly nothing in Cedar Rapids to 4-8" in portions of Illinois! The heavy rain is attributed to storms training (or moving over the same area repeatedly) and a tropical airmass in place. Here's a look at the precipitable water values on Saturday evening -

Precipitable water (or PWATs) is a measure of the moisture in the atmosphere available for rain. When that number is around one inch it sufficient for a decent rain. The closer you get to two inches, the more tropical the airmass is and the higher chances are for heavy rain. PWATS may go even higher over the next few days.

PWATs are expected to be between 1.5 to 2.5" Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday. That's 200 to 300% above normal for this time of year... and really any time of year. The high PWATs will lead to high rainfall rates and heavy rain as multiple rounds move through during the upcoming week.

It's still hard to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will fall and the amounts, but one to three inches of rain will be likely along with locally higher amounts through Wednesday. Here's a look at the Weather Prediction Center's outlook and you can see the extent of the impact from this aimass -

This may lead to flash flooding, rises on rivers and creeks and just continue to further saturate the ground. Luckily, high pressure will move in after Wednesday's front moves in, which will provide a few dry days. However, the pattern is expected to stay active. Here's a look at the Climate Prediction Center outlook through October 8th -