MORE WINTER, A BIG BREAK LOOMS

terryswails1
3 hours ago
6 min read

We've been in the throes of winter recently, with one of the coldest and snowiest starts to the season in decades. Here's the snow that's fallen the past 2 weeks. Many of us have already seen more than we did all of last year, and it's not even winter yet!

Here's the temperature departures, which are running 9 to 11 degrees below normal per day over that same stretch of time.

It's reminiscent of the winters of the late 70s, which were epic in every sense of the word for those of us who experienced them. My climate guru Steve Gottschalk got to digging and found that December 1977 is on par with this year. However, the difference may be that in 77 it never let up with intense cold and snow throughout the month. We are in for a serious break this year, and I will get to that in a minute. But first, here's what Steve dug up regarding the December to remember.

A December to Remember - 1977

It would be the 2nd in a series of 3 bad winters in the late 1970s, with each one worse than the previous one. I was fortunate enough to observe and record them all. From my perspective, these winters were the harshest since the 1880s as far as the amounts of snow and bitter cold is concerned.

December of 1977 saw 4 winter storms sweep through the area. The first one was on the 4-5th which brought 7" to 12" of snow falling on a 1/4" of sleet and freezing rain. The temperatures fell to a -6 with strong winds creating wind chills of a -50 on the old scale. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph blew the snow into 4 to 5 foot drifts, closing roads and stranding motorists. Some of the heavier snowfall totals were:

Ottumwa - 12.0"

Oskaloosa - 11.0"

Lowden - 8.0"

Cedar Rapids & Fayette - 7.0"

Dubuque - 6.3"

The second storm on the 8-10th deposited 5" to 12" of snow with the heavier amounts in N.E. Iowa. Wind gusts up to 57 mph blew the snow into 10 foot drifts creating blizzard conditions, closing roads and stranding motorists, many of which had to be rescued. Heavy equipment was brought in from western parts of the state to help open the roads. The strong winds snapped power lines, leaving many people in the dark without heat. Some of the heavier snowfall totals were:

Dubuque - 5.4"

Fayette - 5.0"

Lowden - 4.6"

Cedar rapids - 4.5"

Clinton & Maquoketa - 4.0"

The temperatures on the morning of the 10th fell to -19 at Waukon, -15 at Dubuque, -14 at Maquoketa, -13 Anamosa and -12 at Cedar Rapids. Wind chills were down to -70. On the 9th, Dubuque had 15" of snow on the ground.

The third storm on the 19-20th brought heavy snowfall to the area along with temperatures in the 30's. Some of the heavier snowfall totals were:

Clinton - 9.0"

Dubuque - 8.0"

Maquoketa - 5.0"

Davenport - 4.8"

Iowa City - 4.0"

The fourth and final storm occurred on New Year's Eve and into the New Year. It brought 4" to 9" of snow along with wind gusts over 30 mph creating 4 to 5 foot drifts stranding motorists. The wind chills were down to -50. Some of the heavier snowfall totals were:

Decorah - 9.0"

Dubuque & Lowden - 8.0"

Cedar Rapids - 7.0"

Clinton -6.7"

Waterloo - 6.6"

Maquoketa - 6.0"

The temperatures on New Year's Day Morning were bitter, with Dubuque -12, Tipton -7 and Cedar Rapids -5.

The month was exceptionally snowy with some of the higher totals being Lowden - 27.5", Dubuque - 26.4", Vinton -22.8", Cedar Rapids - 21.5", Clinton - 18.7" and Belle Plain - 17.8".

It was also colder than normal, with an excess of days with 0 degree readings. In E.C Iowa the number of such days ranged from 6 to 10 with Cedar Rapids and Lowden having 10. For the N.E section of the state Dubuque had 9, Cascade 11, Cresco 12, and Elkader 13 days.

Thanks for the research Steve, I turned 21 that December of 77 and I fondly remember the parade of storms. The good old days. When I tell my kid about it, she just laughs and says how happy she is to have missed it. Say what!

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CLIPPERS GONNA CLIP...

Some subtle changes have shown up in the latest guidance that will have important ramifications for my northeast counties. The changes are tied to the depth of cold air in place the next 72 hours that will force the storm track far enough south to eliminate or drastically reduce snow potential in that part of my area. This drift southwest began yesterday and continues this evening. The bottom line is that the more significant accumulations are expected to be found from the Quad Cities southeast with the two clippers in play.

Let's start with the first system that arrives late Thursday afternoon and sweeps through before midnight. I'm using the official NWS snowfall forecasts and I will show the raw output of models later.

The Thursday event.

The snow totals for the two clippers combined.

As you can clearly see, the end result of the two clippers combined is a swath of 3-6, potentially 7 inches of snow from parts of SE Iowa into WC Illinois. This comes in two bursts, one later Thursday afternoon and evening, and the other during the day Saturday. The NE third of my area sees significantly lighter amounts of 1–2 inches, maybe less in the far northeast.

Here's the combined snowfall totals of the models that go out far enough to capture both events.

The EURO, the furthest southwest and quite likely to verify in the end.

The GFS, likely too high on QPF and its totals in the SW half.

The NBMv5 a blend of 30 models and ensembles at a 10:1 ratio

The national blend of models

The 10k Canadian GEM

Typically, some areas would be under advisories for snow by now, but due to uncertainties, the NWS has not issued any yet. I would assume those will come by morning for later Thursday and Thursday night, especially for my western and southern counties, including the Quad Cities.

After highs in the low to mid 20s both Thursday and Friday, much colder air invades Saturday, (that's despite falling snow in the southwest half). Once that departs, the bottom falls out Saturday night, with clearing skies and fresh snow cover for most. The EURO indicates lows by Sunday morning of 10 to 15 below areawide.

Making matters worse will be enough of a breeze to drop wind chills into the range of 20-30 below zero. Headline will be issued by the NWS for cold Saturday night and Sunday.

Highs Sunday, with the core of the cold overhead, are still shown holding a bit below zero on the EURO.

THE CHINOOK...

Early nest week guidance still indicates a change in the upper air pattern that cuts off the consistent supply of cold air of late and replaces it with mild air off the Pacific and a more westerly flow. This radical change of fortunes means we get out of the deep freeze fast and likely will remain free of it through Christmas. Normal to above normal temperatures are now on the table, with plenty of melting snow in the run-up to December 25th. Here are the ensemble meteograms of the EURO and GFS the next 2 weeks.

The EURO

The GFS

Prospects of a white Christmas have taken a big hit. Maybe next year. How many times have I said that. I should clarify that things could change out 2 weeks, but the odds keep going down by the day. That's a wrap for now. For those of you who get it, enjoy your snow later today. Roll weather...TS.