NEW THOUGHTS ON THE HALLOWEEN SNOW EVENT...
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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY #6
As we talked about earlier a fast moving snow system will bring a slushy round of snow to most of my area tonight. Accumulations should generally end up in the 1 to perhaps 2" range. Just enough to let you know the reality of a long winter is ahead of us.
The focus of this post is actually more centered on the second wave of energy which promises even more snow just in time for Halloween. Unfortunately there are still some details to resolve in terms of the location and eventual amounts.
The trends the past 24 hours are this.
There are issues regarding the phasing and intensity of the energy which forms the Halloween system. On the satellite you can see two distinct pieces of energy. The one in question is dropping in from Canada and the northern Rockies.
The EURO and CANADIAN show less phasing which results in a system that's sheared and weaker. While the EURO has a closed low the trough has a positive tilt. The impacts of this are rather complex but in essence it means QPF is down meaning less potential for heavy snow. The snow is also further south because of a weaker surface low limiting the push of the deformation band.
The GFS on the other hand has been showing a more intense upper air low (nearly negative tilt) and better surface reflection. The system is venting more. That makes a difference with heavier a heavier snow band that falls a bit further northwest. You should be able to see it here.
As you can see it's a pretty subtle difference but it will end up being an important one. Here's what the GFS is showing for snow. A tight Iowa and regional perspective. This includes what falls tonight.