NEW DATA, NEW SNOWFALL FORECASTS.
A HUGE HALLOWEEN THANKS
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THINGS ARE PROGRESSING NICELY...AN EVENING UPDATE
The 18Z EURO and 3k NAM are in and I thought I would give you a look and make a couple comments on how the trends are progressing. Let's start with the 3K NAM
And now the EURO
The two things that stand out to me are this.
#1 Both models are heavier on QPF which is leading to slightly higher totals, maybe an inch more than in previous runs.
#2 Both models are a little further west into Iowa with the 2" line. What's likely happening is that the upper air low is a little further northwest. It's also starting to close off and the models are sensing a bit more in terms of dynamics and moisture.
The end result is that most of my area southeast of a line from west of Dubuque and Cedar Rapids now stands a very good chance of seeing totals of 3 to 5", with local 6" amounts. Only my far northern and western counties in Iowa should see an inch or less.
By all accounts this has the potential to break some early season snowfall records in parts of area. We certainly will for cold on Halloween day and evening. By the way, on the winter storm severity index (WSSI) this is expected to fall into the minor to moderate impact categories. Not bad for October.
Well there you have it as snow continues to fall light to occasionally moderate at my place in Marion. I would say we've had about an inch here. Roll weather...TS
