SANTA ORDERS AN AIR CONDITIONER

Rip-roaring northwest winds howled Thursday night away. Gusts as high as 61 mph were measured in Cedar Rapids, with numerous spots in the 45 to 50 mph range. By Friday afternoon, the intense pressure gradient had relaxed, and the whole event was nothing more than a wind swept memory. A cold one at that, with temperatures once again well below normal.

In keeping with the recent theme of our weather, fast moving disturbances will ripple through the upper level flow, bringing fronts every other day through next Tuesday. However, with time the depth and strength of the cold air will grow less and less and by Christmas, my southern counties could be flirting with 70 degrees and record highs.

Before we get to that topic, Saturday will see moderating temperatures, with enough warm air advection to send highs into the mid 30s north to the mid 40s south. Some passing clouds are expected ahead of a cold front, but it looks to be a dry frontal passage, with the colder air lagging several hours behind the actual front.

Behind it, high pressure will make for a quiet but cooler day Sunday, with temperatures down about 10 degrees from Saturday. That will leave us with highs in the mid 20s north to the mid 30 south, with plenty of sunshine. Overall, a decent weekend for you last minute shoppers to get out and spend some cash. In fact, this will be the first weekend in 4 weeks that snow, cold, or a combination of both does not impact conditions.

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WARMTH BUILDS CHRISTMAS WEEK

Our next disturbance Monday night is weaker, and its cold front washes out with little fanfare and minimal impacts to temperatures. In fact, Monday through Wednesday highs in the north should remain in the upper 30s to mid 40s while the south is more in the mid to upper 40s, perhaps close to 50 in the far south.

Christmas Eve night, a warm front develops along an expanding upper level ridge, and the stage is set for the burst of exceptional warmth that overspreads the area Christmas Day. One question that remains is how far north the warm front gets and how that impacts temperatures in my northern counties. Todays' guidance suggests the real warmth stays near or just south of HWY 30. Residual snow cover over far northern Iowa and points north will have something to say about its eventual position. The bottom line is, temperatures could vary significantly from north to south locally. The EURO has 50 in Dubuque and 70 in Keokuk, with the warm front situated close to I-80. That's at least 40 miles further south than what was shown yesterday.

Anyway you slice it, Christmas is going to be well above normal, it's just a question of how warm in the north. The GFS shows highs 25 to 35 degrees above normal from north to south. The word at the pole is Santa has ordered AC for the sleigh this year. With that big old beard, insulated boots, and heavy coat, I have it on good authority that Mr. C. does not like warmth. Kind of like a husky.

The satellite imagery early Friday shows the southern extent of any remaining snow pack near or slightly north of I-80, which fits well with the northern extent of the warmth Christmas Day.

Long range guidance continues to show above normal temperatures the remainder of December, but there is quite a bit of difference between what the GFS shows compared to the much warmer EURO. Take a look.

The GFS

The EURO

The GFS is hinting that a pattern change may be developing, and that could be the case. However, often times the retrogression necessary to cause one is slower than initially thought. For now, I don't see the high of 10 the GFS shows January 4th, but that could be the canary in the coal mine that the door is opening to cold once again in early January. Whatever happens, I think we ride out the warmth a bit longer, similar to what the EURO indicates. Here's its temperature departures for the period December 24th to January 3rd on the EURO.

By the way, along with the building warmth comes a prolonged period of storm free conditions. From now through December 26th, the GFS shows little if any precipitation locally. Good news for holiday travelers.

Meantime, we get a bounce in temperatures Saturday that will get highs in all areas above freezing as we enjoy the last full day of fall. Winter officially arrives the 21st, and for the first time in 6 months, the days start getting longer. Only 3 months until start of spring! Roll weather...TS