STEVE'S "WILD" WORLD OF WEATHER...
CONSIDER THE VALUE PLEASE...TSwails.com continues to be a leader in catching and forecasting the trends of our extreme weather pattern the past few weeks. It takes a great deal of commitment, passion, and knowledge to stay on top of the swings. Now that I'm no longer in television, this is my job and that's the reason I'm asking for a voluntary subscription fee of $12 dollars a year, one dollar a month to keep TSwails going. Together we can create one of the best, most unique, and reliable weather sites in the Midwest. Your contribution of 3 cents a day, allows me to stay free of the corporate world and pour my energy into doing what I do best, forecasting the weather! We hope you see the value and hard work that goes into the site everyday. Your support in any way is sincerely appreciated. Thanks and roll weather. To donate click on the secure green box below.
When I'm wondering about weather folklore and historical events this is the man I go to. With more than 50 years of statistical and observational research, he's the dude! When it comes to lunar cycles, woolly bear caterpillars, insects, bugs, and animals, he tracks them, records them, and establishes ties to weather patterns. He's a knowledgeable and interesting man. His name is Steve Gottschalk by way of Lowden, Iowa. I'm grateful to him for lending his unique perspective to the site. Steve's "wild" world of weather can be found every week right
here on TSwails.com. Take it away Steve!
NOW THAT'S CRUNCHY COLD!!
A record breaking cold spell held the state in it's grip from December 20-23, 1989 with a statewide average of -10.8 degrees for 4 day period. On the 21st nearly every location in the state dropped below -20. Some of the coldest readings were:
-27 at Ananmosa, LeMars and Mt Ayr.
-28 at Perry.
-29 at Audubon, Hawarden, Logan and Sibley.
-30 at Sioux Rapids.
-31 at Atlantic, Chariton and Guthrie Center.
The wind chill dipped to -78 at Sioux City on the 21st. (that scale is no longer used) During the afternoon, high temperatures at all locations remained below -10 degrees despite the abundant sunshine
.
It was during this cold spell that Iowa set it's all time highest barometric pressure with a reading of 31.18" at Sioux City on the 21st.
Nearly 100 years earlier on Dec. 21, 1891, unseasonably warm weather spawned strong thunderstorms from s.w. into central Iowa. Pea size hail was reported at Corning, Des Moines , Williams and Marshalltown. A brief tornado touched down in the western part of Marshalltown leaving a path of damage 3 miles long and injuring one person. It is just one of three tornadoes reported in Iowa during the month of December in it's entire history.
DECEMBER"S GETTING CLOUDIER:
I did some research on the number of cloudy days during the month of December and found that we are seeing more cloudy days since 2000. From 1970-1999 the average was 16.5 days and since 2000 the average jumped to 17.8 days.
DECEMBER COLD SPELLS:
I went through 30 years of my weather data (1989-2018) and found that our cold spells were more likely to occur during the week of the First Quarter moon. The next best chance was during the week of the Full Moon.
I used my data base to see which day of the month had the most 0 degree temperatures. I found out that Christmas Eve Day had the most days with 19 out of 59 times followed by the 17th and the 20th with 14 times, then Christmas Day, the 30th and the 31st with 13 times.
I went through my records and found that we have only had measurable snow on Christmas Eve Day 15 times out of the past 59 years and measurable snow on Christmas Day just 14 times. The best chance for getting snow on Christmas Day was during the week of the Last Quarter moon of which it happens to be this year. That's a wrap for now. With all the weather that's fit to be wild, I'm Steve Gottschalk..
WEATHER SCHOOL IS COMING TO TOWN...SPOTS ARE NEARLY FULL
GIVE SANTA A BREAK! Christmas is less than a month away. Are you looking for something special for that hard to buy for person? Maybe you just want to treat yourself for being on the nice list! Well, here's an idea that can "give" any weather enthusiast a lifetime of pleasure. It's called WEATHER SCHOOL. What a person experiences and learns here will open up the world of forecasting for years of enjoyment to come. Consider giving the gift of weather. Better hurry, only 6 desks still open. You can get all the details below.
TSwails.com is offering a very special and unique opportunity to learn first-hand the ins and outs of weather forecasting with one of the best meteorologists in the Midwest along with his team of expert meteorologists.
That’s right… You want to forecast right along with Terry Swails, well now you can. He’s teaching weather with TSwails newest program called WEATHER SCHOOL. The opening bell rings this January and you can be a member of the very first graduating class. The one-day forecasting seminar for weather enthusiasts will be held at his home in January. It’s not your typical run-of-the-mill school. There will be no tests, but Terry, Rebecca, and Nick will cram your head with so much knowledge, it’ll be spinning like a tornado before the day is over.
You want to know the essential online sites to use for models, radar, and the basic weather tools? DONE! You want to understand the structure of models and the role they play? DONE! You want to be able to construct forecasts from the ground up? DONE!
WEATHER SCHOOL will be presented in a seminar-type format where you'll have the ability to ask questions and dig deep. You’ll get the scoop on data acquisition, model analysis, severe weather, and actual forecasting from the big dog himself, T. Swails. With 43 years of experience and an uncanny ability to break the science down, you’ll open the door to forecasting like never before.
Along with the head master T. Swails himself, meteorologists Rebecca Kopelman and Nick Stewart of KGAN TV will be there to lend their knowledge and experience to the discussion. It will be fun, informative, and factual! This is the day for you to see, feel, and experience what it’s like to be in the hot seat of a meteorologist.
The seminar will be held January 25th and will last from noon until 5:00pm. We have limited seating and the cost is $99 dollars per person. A catered lunch will be provided. Again..not a lot of seats so reservations with a pre-payment are required. Sorry, no refunds. If there’s enough interest, a second session will be added in early February. To register or get additional information send an email to carolynswettstone@yahoo.com
GIVE THE GIFT OF WEATHER. This might be the perfect gift for that hard to buy for person this Christmas. Along with a WEATHER SCHOOL admittance voucher, TSwails will send a special holiday greeting to your weather enthusiast if you give the gift of weather with the TSwails touch!
WEATHER SCHOOL AGENDA:
WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION
Purpose: To help weather enthusiasts understand the basics of forecasting and apply the knowledge and techniques learned to construct personal forecasts.
Session 1: DATA ACQUISITION
The essential on-line sites for models, observations, satellite and radar images, and general weather data.
Session 2: ANALYSIS:
Determining your objective goals. Short term, intermediate, or long-term. Understanding the process of analysis and its relationship to forecasting.
Model options and choices. What to use and when!
The GFS, EURO, NAM 3k, NAM 12K, Canadian, HRRR, MJO, ensembles, teleconnections, etc.
Locating, learning, and knowing what’s essential to make a reliable forecast.
The art and science of model interpretation: Using and understanding model output. Its called guidance for a reason!
Learn how to analyze key parameters such as:
Surface and upper air data
Vorticity and energy
Precipitation output
Wind and pressure
Session 3: MAKING A FORECAST FROM MODEL GUIDANCE
A simulation of the basic process using model output.
BREAK: A 25-30 minute recess to enjoy a catered lunch…
Session 4: SEVERE WEATHER:
Thunderstorms, tornadoes, derechoes, and squall lines.
Soundings. What are they and why should I care?
Instability (CAPE) vs (CIN) Critical interaction involving moisture, heating, and forcing.
Uncovering the ingredients of a severe weather set-up.
TVS signatures. What to look for on radar.
Role of SPC vs NWS, and your local TV station regarding the warning process.
Simulated model driven forecast of a severe weather event/tornado outbreak
Session 5: WINTER STORMS:
The key ingredients required for significant winter storm:
How to forecast the rain snow line.
How to forecast snow totals from QPF
Determining totals from snow ratios.
What to look for at the surface and at upper levels (500 and 850mb)
Model bias and determining the storm track
Simulated model driven forecast of a significant Midwest winter storm
QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION
An open period for attendees to ask questions regarding relevant topics or issues discussed during the day.
CONCLUSION:
Some final words of inspiration from the events headliners
Once again, to reserve a spot or ask questions send an email to carolynswettstone@yahoo.com See you when the bell rings! Roll weather...T. Swails
