FLYING HIGH...

If you were flying high aboard the GOES satellite Thursday, this is what you would have seen 22,300 miles above the earths surface. Clouds and plenty of them are evident over the central U.S. from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. We were some of the fortunate few who enjoyed ample sunshine and highs that were in the mid to upper 70s!

Our neighbors in NW Iowa were not so lucky, enduring rain and very raw temperatures. Look at this late afternoon temperature contrast. Readings in NW Iowa were in the mid 40s, while in SE Iowa, temperatures were clustered near 80. For those counting, that's a 35 degree spread!

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but that chilly air is on the move, and we will get our chance to feel it Friday and Friday night. Not only that, the cold front that delivers could also bring some clouds and scattered showers. The positive (something I noted in my previous post), is that the axis of heavier rains are aimed northwest of my area. As a result, anything we experience should be spotty, on the light side, and confined mainly to my NW counties. A few showers will be ongoing around daybreak Friday, and the rest of what sneaks in comes through in the morning and departs the northwest by noon.

As for amounts, I'm leaning towards the EURO, 12K NAM, and HRRR. Here's what they are indicating for potential totals through Friday. The NEW 3K NAM just jumped on board, so I'm adding that as well. The GFS is a heavier outlier and I have discounted its solution.

The EURO

The HRRR

The 3k NAM

The 12K NAM

As I alluded to earlier, temperatures Friday will be a downer. Highs may not get out of the low 50s in the far north. At 2:00pm, the HRRR shows 51 in Dubuque, while it's 76 Galesburg.

By 6:00pm, everybody is in the 50s, with upper 40s found in the north. Cold air advection is in full force behind the cold front Friday night, and lows could reach the mid 30s in the north. Some patchy frost is a possibility, but nothing that should cause any damage to plants or flowers.

Earlier I mentioned all the clouds over the region Thursday. The reason why is moisture and instability. Water vapor from Iowa south to Texas was an inch or more.

Behind Friday's frontal passage, a back door high over the Great lakes brings much drier air to start the weekend. Water vapor levels have dropped from 1"+ to around .25 inches in the northeast.

That should see to it that Saturday and most likely Sunday will be dry. However, some models are trying to kick up a few elevated showers Sunday, but they will be fighting dry air and may produce little more than virga and some passing clouds. This is a trend that needs to be fine-tuned going forward. Temperatures Saturday will be cool, ranging from 59 north to 65 south. Sunday looks a few degrees warmer at 62-68.

Monday, our next weather maker is racing across the upper Midwest. Ahead of it, warm advection is likely to send highs into the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew points are shown reaching the upper 60s on the EURO, indicating a robust return in moisture. In fact, you can see how water vapor has increased to 1.50 inches in eastern Iowa.

The warm temperatures and moisture will combine to create ample instability, with CAPE reaching 3,000 j/kg as far east as Cedar Rapids and Iowa City Monday afternoon.

That would easily support a severe thunderstorm threat. However, I currently don't see robust shear and storms that develop could quickly go linear. That limits the tornado threat and points to wind and hail as the primary elements. We are still out nearly 4 days, so things can change, but for now this is a promising trend. SPC still has a 30 percent risk of severe weather in place for most of Iowa and northwest Illinois.

Additionally, the Colorado State severe probability forecast based on the GEFS, shows a 51 percent max probability of severe weather in Iowa.

The CFSv2 supercell composite parameter for the period April 24 to 30th is focused heavily on the Plains and central U.S. Much of the potential is centered around Monday's event.

Following Monday's system, the pattern reverts to NW flow, which should leave the remainder of next week drier and cooler. The GFS indicates a lot of days in the 60s the next 2 weeks. It is what it is.

Happy Friday everyone and roll weather...TS.