MOISTURE RULES...

April started off wet enough with a good rain on the 2nd. However, after that the next 2 weeks were quiet as a cemetery with rain on only 1 of the next 14 days in Dubuque (and that amounted to just .02"). We've really turned things around the past week, There's been at least a trace of rain 6 of the last 7 days in Dubuque where the total for the 7-day period is 1.73 inches, (not counting anything that may have fallen after 11:00pm Wednesday).

Other spots further west in eastern Iowa have had significantly more than that the past week, with a few locations pushing 4 inches in NE Iowa around Waukon. Much of that came with the potent Easter storm.

Despite the wetness of the past 7 days, Dubuque is still about 1/2 inch below normal on April precipitation. For the year as a whole, the city is 2.32 inches below the average of 8.17". This is also interesting, Dubuque usually picks up 1.6" of snow in April, but this year has only seen a trace. More important, for the winter, just 17.2 inches of snow fell. A typical winter would see 42.2 inches! That makes this the 2nd least snowy winter with 15 inches, the all-time low was 15 inches in 1967-68. The snowiest Dubuque winter was 2007-08, when 78.7 inches piled up! This year was 61.5 inches below that. Guess who was there to experience it, yours truly. I love snow, but it hates me.

WHY THE WET WEATHER?

The recent trend of wet weather has been the result of a western trough sending moisture and ripples of energy into the area on a regular basis. The animation below shows available water vapor Wednesday through Monday of next week. You can see we are in the thick of it through Friday before it departs briefly Saturday, only to return again by Monday. Accordingly, we continue with rain chances Thursday night and Friday morning, get a break Saturday and Sunday before additional chances Sunday night through Monday night.

What showers and storms skipped across my northwestern counties overnight should be long gone by day break, leaving us with a warm April day. With a mix of clouds and sun, highs should hit the upper 70s to low 80s. The HRRR shows this Thursday afternoon. I like it.

Thursday night a nice chunk of energy ejects out of the Plains riding along a stationary front to our northwest. It provides the forcing necessary for what should be a new round of showers and storms. These may not arrive until late evening in the southwest and hold off until after midnight in the northeast. With water vapor of 1 to 1.25 inches, some pockets of heavy rain are possible, especially where thunderstorms can get going. The severe threat looks minimal to me.

Here's what model guidance is suggesting for rainfall Thursday night and Friday. Notice the latest trends have pushed the heaviest axis NW of my area. Not necessarily a bad thing with farmers in planting mode.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3K NAM

The HRRR

Friday, any lingering showers are gone by early afternoon in the northeast, and a back door cold front plows across the region. It shifts winds to the NE and brings readings around 50 to my northernmost counties early Friday, where they will struggle to go up all day. My central and southern counties avoid the colder air until midday, and then temperatures will begin to decline. The HRRR shows this for temperatures at 1:00pm Friday.

Strong cold air advection Saturday night will drive temperatures to very chilly levels. The GFS sends lows into the mid 30s north.

Wind chills in that part of my area my go as low as the upper 20s by sunrise Saturday.

The strong April sun will do its thing Saturday, pushing highs into the upper 50s north to low to mid 60s far south. There will be a bit of a fall feel to the air.

Sunday, the cold air ridge passes and warm air advection is back in play. This could spread a few clouds in during the afternoon and while a few elevated showers are possible, dry air should keep them at bay until Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be warmer, ranging from 63 northeast to 69 southwest.

A STORMY DAY, MONDAY?

That brings us to Monday, which promises to be a warm and somewhat muggy day ahead of a dynamic storm approaching from the west. Highs near 80 and dew points in the mid 60s will fuel instability, as evidenced by CAPE in central Iowa over 3,500 j/kg. Even locally, the buoyant air mass could fire a few storms ahead of the primary development zone of western or central Iowa in the afternoon. These them press east and could generate strong to severe storms in parts of my area Monday evening. Timing and intensity along with mesocale details will determine what comes of the potential locally. SPC has parts of the area in a 30% risk outlook for severe storms well in advance of the event.

That's the long and short of it for now. Enjoy what should be a fine spring day. Roll weather...TS