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PUTTING THE PIECES OF THE PUZZLE TOGETHER...

PLEASE JOIN US FOR A NEW EDITION OF WEATHER SCHOOL: SEVERE STORMS 101

We have a brand new weather school planned for April 4th. This one is called Severe Storms 101. If you want to know more about the ins and outs of severe thunderstorms and how to forecast them this will be a great introductory session. There will be event simulations and a big focus on tornadoes. Some tips on chasing them as well. Aside from that there will be in depth focus on the 1968 EF5 Charles City tornado outbreak, the Parkersburg EF5 of 2008, and the rare mid-November EF4 Washington, Illinois twister that occurred November 17, 2013. Lots of compelling video and insights presented by 3 meteorologists. Contact Carolynswettstone@yahoo.com to sign up or click on the more details button in the graphic above to find out more!

SATURDAY'S FEATURE POST:

The rest of the weekend we've got some nice late February weather to enjoy. Nothing exceptional but certainly decent enough to get out and about without the parka. The NDFD blend of temperatures shows this in Cedar Rapids the next 7 days.

Here's the numbers for the Quad Cities.

The EURO really gets it going Sunday showing highs reaching the 50s as far north as HWY 20. I think that might be a tad high but a 50 could be seen as far north as I-80. We'll need to watch that.

Sunday night the winds switch to the north and you can see that brings down temperatures substantially by Tuesday and Wednesday when the potential exists for a decent snow in some part of the Midwest. Recently models have shown this idea and I do believe it has strong merit. My big concern, as I've been pounding home the last few posts is phasing. Are the models handling the development of a closed upper air low properly? If so this could be one of the better snows of the entire winter. If not, well you know the drill. This turns into a bust and we all make fun of the mindless weathermen who drank the kool-aid.

With 3 days to go and a winter full of disappointments, I want it known by all that we are still in the gray area of this system and more or less phasing could dramatically change the outcome of how much snow falls and where. The point now is to show you what is on the table and to hope consistency continues in further runs. Forecasters all across the Midwest are feeling this thing out just like me.

The potential revolves around this set-up. Energy diving and digging into the northern Rockies providing lift and energy for precipitation. The SW flow ahead of it taps the necessary moisture for precipitation. In the end, how it all comes together determines the outcome.

As of Friday night, the overall model scenario supports a complex merger of energy that creates strong lift and a deformation zone centered over much of my area. If it happens as shown, that puts us in the thick of it. But, as I've been saying, I won't be ready to jump on board until data is better sampled and that won't fully happen until Sunday. So, we take it slow and easy and build what ultimately happens block by block.

With that, I'm throwing out some raw snowfall forecasts. This is nothing more than what models are depicting based on the what data is currently available (remember that gets better with time as sampling increases). There is no human intervention here and these are not forecasts. This is model guidance that forecasters are looking at to try and piece the puzzle together. Everybody got that? Things are going to change going forward, its just a matter of how much. Speaking of that, the latest GFS operational has already gone AWOL (about what you would expect). However the EURO and GEM are still full steam ahead as are the GEFS ensembles. OK, here you go.

The EURO

The GEM

The GEFS ensembles

The GFS

That's the latest and greatest for now. We'll see where things stand throughout the day Saturday. Until next time, roll weather...TS

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