A CORNY STORY...

A CORNY STORY...

Before I get started, a little story about corn. Back in late May, Carolyn decided to plant some sweet corn in the back yard. She took a spade, stirred around some dirt and tossed on some seeds. Day after day, she's been out there watching her mini corn stalks inching their way upward. Several weeks ago she saw it tasseling and there was great joy. Despite the good news, the corn stalks were little more than 3 feet tall and clearly underperforming. Not to be denied, she talked to the plants, watered and nurtured them as I tried to remain optimistic that one day sweet corn would be on the table. Well, I'm happy to report today was the day it happened. She ran in with the goods, a 4 inch ear of corn, no bigger than my cell phone. We cleaned it, boiled it and ate it. We each got a few bites and we toasted our good fortune to experience such a bountiful harvest. I reminded her that it's the simple things that are the best things and then told her, it was the "best" damn corn I ever cobbed. What a day!

HIT AND MISS RAINS...

The last week or so the storm track has been aligned in such a way that the SW half of my area has been in close proximity to the ring of fire. That's essentially the northern periphery of a heat dome, the breeding ground for showers and storms. That's brought soaking rains to my southern counties and taken a big bite out of the drought there. Most of the north though has been on the cutting edge, too far removed from the moisture and forcing to get in on the action and little if any rain has occurred, especially north of HWY 30. Here's what's fallen since last Friday.

The next system Wednesday is on a similar track meaning the south is in line for any rains of consequence while the north is on the outside looking in. The biggest question now is how far north do the more significant rains get. The deterministic runs of the GFS and EURO keep the bulk of the heavy rains near and south of the Missouri border. The convective allowing products such as the NAM and HRRR are further north with some pretty good rains up to I-80. WPC indicates at least a slight risk of excessive rain reaching SE Iowa and WC Illinois.

The 3k NAM does show PWAT's pushing 2 inches in that area Wednesday but I'm thinking that's a push and I doubt the moisture or heavy rains will make much past the Missouri border.

So, until I'm proven wrong I am leaning more towards the lighter amounts of the GFS and EURO but the situation needs to be watched with saturated soils from recent 4-8 inch rains in the far south. Here's what models are showing. I will start with the lighter totals of the EURO and GFS which I prefer.

The EURO

The GFS

Now the high-res CAM's and their heavier rainfall depictions. Very unlikely in my opinion.

The 12k NAM

The 3k NAM

The HRRR

Suffice it to say, the area near and south of HWY 34 is again the region to watch for the larger rain totals up to 1/4 inch. North of I-80 there is good consistency that little if any rain falls. The most opportune window for rain is Wednesday afternoon and evening, particularly over my far southern counties. Due to meager CAPE (instability) any severe weather should be confined to Missouri and central Illinois.

Temperatures are likely to be on the cool side Wednesday due to clouds and pockets of rain. Highs in the mid to upper 70s look widespread unless we can squeeze out a little more sunshine than is currently expected. Thursday, with partly sunny skies readings will be warmer with highs back in the low 80s.

Friday a northern stream disturbance will swing across the upper Midwest. A trailing cool front is expected to bring some widely scattered showers and storms as it passes. This time around the best forcing is aimed at the north so rain chances are greatest north of I-80. Amounts look light (moderate at the very best). Friday's highs should reach the low to mid 80s with a bit more humidity.

THE WEEKEND...

As it stands now, the weekend sets up to be dry until late Sunday evening or night. At that time, the progressive pattern we are in sends another quick moving front across the region. Its several days away but for now dynamics and moisture look favorable for active storms and downpours in spots. Something to watch. Otherwise, temperatures look summery with highs well into the 80s.

Happy hump day and roll weather...TS

BRAND NEW MASSIVE SAVINGS AT THE CHURCH THIS WEEKEND

We've had a last minute cancellation which means that my AIRBNB is available this Friday and Saturday in Galena for the exceptional price of $800...That includes taxes and the cleaning fee! A savings of $450. We can sleep 8 with 3 full bathrooms, a full kitchen, cable, internet, and XM stereo. Less than 10 minutes from Galena the church is brand new with 5 star reviews and high end amenities. Make the experience yours this weekend! Call or text Carolyn at the number above.