A DAY WITHOUT RAIN...

At 3:00pm Tuesday, I was in a Dubuque Menard's when the sky opened up and it poured. It only lasted 5–6 minutes, but it was a full throated gully washer. The roof must have been metal because the sound was deafening. Believe me when I tell you, It got everyone's attention. That was the second round of rain for the day. The first, around 1:00pm., dropped the temperature to 59. That passed, the sun came out, and at 2:00pm., we were back to 67. When the second round hit near 3:00pm., the wind hit 29 mph out of the north and at 3:53 the reading was 57 degrees! I was wishing I had a coat.

The airport several miles south of the city only showed .05 for the daily rain total. I estimated nearly 1/2 inch in less than 10 minutes. That looks to be a reasonably good guess, as the Doppler indicated at least 4/10ths on the west side of town.

Needless to say it was another wet chilly day here with temperatures vacillating between the upper 50s and mid 60s. With more than 6 inches of rain for the month, I'm mowing every 5 days if I don't want to rake it. That's a trend that's been ongoing since I began cutting grass in early April. I took a quick look at the Dubuque statistics and found that since March 1st, 46 of the last 89 days have had at least a trace of rain (51 percent of the time). I've highlighted in yellow the days with raindrops. In a perfect world, I would prefer about 1 out of 4, closer to 25 percent....

This is also interesting. In red, you can see this year's accumulated precipitation through May 28th. The blue line shows the highest amount for the date and the dark red the lowest. At least for now, 2024 is near the all-time wettest and on a pace to beat 1881 if trends were to continue.

Below, you can see similar rain trends for other locations around the region since January 1st.

Burlington

Cedar Rapids

Moline

DRIER DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN, AT LEAST FOR 3 DAYS

High pressure will make a swing through the region the next few days, driving out moisture and producing a much better brand of weather. Highs are expected to be around 70 north to 75 south Wednesday and Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will be a bit frisky, reaching into the mid to upper 40s in most spots. Aside from a few fair weather cumulus, skies should be mostly clear.

Our next rainmaker begins its approach Friday, but enough high pressure and dry air remains intact to keep the daylight hours dry. Clouds however will begin to increase as the day wears on, particularly in the far west. Models diverge at this point as the EURO drives the system east with enough moisture and forcing to kick up another nice rain. The GFS is more inclined to keep the better instability and dynamics further south. It basically dries the system up and comes through with only scattered showers in the far south. With the depth of the dry air, I could see the GFS solution having some merit. However, I suspect it's too dry. I will maintain more of a middle ground solution with light to perhaps moderate rain in showers and a few thundershowers Friday night. Before they arrive, daytime highs should bounce into the mid 70s. Look at the big difference in rain totals between the EURO and GFS. Low confidence how this plays out, but for now I'm leaning more towards the wetter idea of the EURO.

EURO.

The GFS

Saturday morning, any lingering showers will depart and skies should break out some in the afternoon, That allows highs to get back into the low to mid 70s. If clouds are slower to clear, perhaps several degrees cooler.

Sunday, southerly winds return and humidity as well as temperatures increase. That does generate some instability and at least a small chance of showers and storms. However, forcing remains minimal and the best rain chances should remain well to the west. I expect most of the day (if not all of it) to be dry. Highs could reach the upper 70s to low 80s with a day of generous sunshine.

Monday and Tuesday, a more organized threat of showers and storms is on the table thanks to the arrival of another cold front. Both days look summery, with highs back in the low to perhaps mid 80s. Once through, the front brings another round of cooler, drier weather for the middle and end of next week.

That's all I've got for now. Enjoy the rain free day! Roll weather...TS