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A DOSE OF REALITY...

NOW MORE THAN EVER I NEED YOUR HELP WITH OPERATING EXPENSES

THE FUTURE OF THE SITE DEPENDS ON YOU. 

Hi everyone, as you know, TSwails.com is a no-pay site; existing on voluntary subscriptions or personal donations. If you find value in the site, I'm asking kindly that you make the donation you feel is worthy. I'm suggesting $20.00, roughly a nickel a day. Less than 5% of my readers donate, so your gift is not only appreciated, it helps immensely. Your contribution, whatever you can swing, supports the content, infrastructure, and operational costs. Thanks for anything you can do.


THAT WAS AN EYE OPENER...

We finally got a good dose of the reality that it's still winter Friday, thanks to a storm system that dumped up to 3 inches of snow on my southern counties and fostered an Arctic intrusion that will have wind chills below zero Saturday morning. Here you can see the clipper doing what clippers do, racing east, already entering the Atlantic Ocean.

That tight pressure gradient has been pumping in stiff NW winds and sharply colder air. Saturday morning temperatures on the HRRR are shown in the range of 7–10 degrees.

Wind chills of zero to 5 below should be widespread.

You can also see the area of snow that fell Friday from central Iowa into the Ohio Valley. Snows were heaviest in my area SE of HWY 34, especially from Burlington SE where 2-3 inch totals occurred. My northern counties escaped the snow, but not the cold that followed.

Here are some snow plots. Amounts up to 7" were measured around Springfield, Illinois.


UP, DOWN, AND ALL AROUND...

After a crisp winter day Saturday with highs struggling to break freezing (actually below normal), a warming trend commences Sunday. Westerly winds and return flow will send highs into the upper 30s far north to the mid 40s south. Mostly sunny skies are expected to prevail.


Much to my chagrin, the next 8–14 days look very much on the quiet side. Mild too! The 10 day 500mb mean flow looks like this for the period ending February 27th. The brunt of any cold air is aimed at New England, and W/NW flow cuts across the Midwest.

That will be a push-pull pattern that is dry, but also one that contains fronts that produce warm surges followed by cool ones. A regular cycle from the looks of it, the next 2 weeks. The GFS show this for temperatures through March 3rd. There's some nice numbers in there.

The EURO is similar but a more conservative version of the GFS.

The Climate Prediction Center indicates this for its 8-14 day outlook ending March 1st. It looks solid to me.

With all the mild air, snow is not likely to be an issue, as can be seen in the 10-day snowfall outlook of the GFS and EURO. Take a look for yourself.


The GFS ending February 27th

The EURO for the same period.

If you're feeling a little crabby Saturday morning with wind chills near or even below zero, flush it. This cold snap is not long for the Midwest, and warmer days will soon be here again. Roll weather...TS P.S. With my recent health issues, I very much need to reach my fund-raising goals. To keep things as they are, I'm in humble need of your donation to the site more than ever. If you use it and find value in it, please consider a contribution. Thanks to you who have already helped the cause!

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