THE WITCH OF NOVEMBER RIDES

Before we get to a clipper with the capability to produce snowflakes and early season Arctic air this weekend, my climate and folklore guru Steve Gottschalk has wrapped up his annual count of woolly bears, this being year #49.

The tradition of using the woolly bear to forecast the coming winter weather dates back to the colonial era in America. The myth gained widespread national attention after a 1948 study by Dr. Charles Howard Curran of the American Museum of Natural History. Curran gathered caterpillars and measured the width of their brown bands, correlating it with the severity of the winter. He published his findings in the New York Herald Tribune, and the story was gobbled up by the national media.

Steve's search this fall has yielded 95 woolly bears. By Steve's standards, 48 indicated a mild winter and 47 said cold. However, he notes that a large majority of the last 20 (70%) were in the cold camp.

Steve also tracks large wolf spiders, which he observed were coming indoors in larger numbers than normal, a sign of a cold winter. (I don't want that thing in my house!)

Additionally, horseweed was taller than usual, which Steve says is a harbinger of a snowier winter.

Last but not least, Steve noticed that some plants bloomed for a second time, something he had never seen. That indicates a colder winter.

In the end, Steve put all these findings together and using natures signs, he believes winter will have near normal temperatures and above normal snowfall. I could see that. Thanks for the insights, Steve.

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ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS

After a breezy but pleasant day Wednesday, an approaching short wave will begin to tap some moisture resulting in an increase in clouds Thursday, especially in the afternoon. Even with the addition of clouds, it will be another mild day by November standards, with highs mid 50s north to around 60 south.

Thursday night, the short wave and an associated cold front will dip into the region. That provides the forcing for shower development late in the evening or overnight. Moisture remains meager, so any showers should be light. The area from the Quad Cities southeast could see 1 to 2/10ths of an inch, while amounts in my NW counties should remain under 1/10th of an inch. The EURO suggests amounts that look like this Thursday night.

Friday, the region remains in a large trough but is between storm systems. That leaves one final nice day with sunshine and brisk west winds producing highs in the range of 60 to 65.

THE WITCH OF NOVEMBER

Friday night, all eyes will be focused on an early season clipper that will sweep into the region Saturday afternoon. Guidance continues to show a vigorous upper air system that produces rain, some snow, and an Arctic incursion to close out the weekend Sunday. Confidence continues to increase that most areas will see the first snowflakes of the season. However, it lowers with regard to how much wintry precipitation will occur. Either way, the witch of November comes stealing with a dramatic change this weekend.

The snowfall uncertainty is tied to a large upper-level Polar low and its associated Arctic air. Early Saturday, it remains north of Lake Superior, awaiting the passage of the clipper before it surges southward into the Midwest. Make no mistake about it, this is anomalously cold air, with both the GFS and EURO showing 500mb temperatures of -40C and 850 temperatures (a mile up) as cold as -15C, which in sounding climatology is at record cold levels. This will produce big lake effect snows over the lee of the Great Lakes.

500mb temperatures Sunday night

850 Temperatures Sunday afternoon

How soon the cold air can enter the clipper will determine how fast rain can change to snow. A quicker release of cold air would allow rain to mix with snow that potentially turns to all snow before ending Saturday night. Conversely, if the cold arrives later, the majority of the precipitation would end before the transition to snow can take place. The EURO is more in this camp, showing predominantly rain. The GFS however has remained staunch for several days, showing a quicker transition to snow. In fact, it shows a full change over Saturday evening that allows 1 to perhaps 2 inches of slushy snow, especially north of I-80 in Iowa. Here it is.

The EURO, which had been showing no accumulations, resorted to this late Wednesday. Not sure if I buy it since this is a one-off at this point.

Anyway, it does appear trends are indicating at least a transition to light snow with the potential to produce some minor accumulations across the north, especially on grassy and elevated surfaces where the cold air can undercut the warm ground temperatures. I doubt any would accumulate on roads. Bridges and overpasses could be something to watch.

Sunday, the Polar low north of Lake Superior has a clear path to dive south behind the passage of the clipper and does so. The early season Arctic air blasts southward directly over the region Sunday. It's shown behind a secondary closed low at 500mb that drops directly south over the Quad Cities and the Mississippi Valley.

Cold air of that magnitude will no doubt generate steep lapse rates and snow showers sometime Sunday or Sunday night that could provide a dusting of snow for those areas that miss out Saturday night. These are snow totals on the EURO for Sunday and Sunday evening. Like I said earlier, between the two periods I got to believe my area will see it first snowflakes, in some spots it could be measurable. That said, I suspect total accumulations will end up to be minimal, 1/2 inch or less, with a few spots in the north closer to an inch.

Regarding the big chill, the GFS shows lows Sunday Morning in the low 20s.

With a stiff north wind, wind chills should be in the single digits to low teens at daybreak. What a change.

Sunday, the GFS shows highs over my entire area near to slightly above freezing, in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Monday won't be much better, with wind chills much of the day in the upper teens and to upper 20s.

By midweek, the trough and its cold air moves east, and significant improvement is expected as temperatures return to near or above normal levels. The witch of November will have flown the coup, but I doubt if she's gone for long. Roll weather...TS