A LULL IN THE PATTERN, FOR NOW

The weather will certainly quiet down for the beginning and middle portions of May, but we will likely see more action return towards the end of the month. Analogs are highlighting more than a 70% chance of below-normal precipitation for mid-May which is quite a strong signal, especially for what is an otherwise active time of the year.

The above image I believe is quite remarkable for this time of year. This is the European Ensemble, showing all 50 runs of that model for the next two weeks and its 24-hour precipitation. There is nearly zero chance for rain through about May 16. You can see the pattern start to show signs of life later in the period, but in the short term it is looking incredibly quiet. A few members of the ensemble show some rain around May 11, but that's about it.

What makes this even more impressive is the fact May is typically the second-wettest month of the year for the Quad Cities region, only behind June. If we lack precipitation this time of year, the prospects for a problematic drought come summer are certainly on the table and as I alluded to yesterday as well, needs to be watched. I think at this point those that would be impacted by drought need to keep focused on the forecasts in the weeks ahead.

Now, for some good news, it does seem as though the pattern will wake up later in the month. Analogs are also hinting at the above-normal precipitation potential, although the signal is rather small at this point.

We will start looking at 200mb anomalies over the equatorial waters off the coast of South America around May 15 which will help instigate stronger troughs in the western United States to promote storm systems. This also times rather well, climatologically, for severe weather for much of the central CONUS.

By May 15 the prospects for severe weather are maximized over Oklahoma and Kansas, however you can see the chances are increasing northward as well into the Great Lakes and Midwest. Whether or not we will be dealing with severe weather is impossible to say at this range, but with more active weather forecast with May moisture and instability, after about May 16 is when things could get more interesting.

Have a great week everyone!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart