A NEAR-PERFECT MELT....
The snow has slowly been melting away over the last two weeks. We have been grateful enough during that time to not experience additional precipitation, which could've exacerbated the situation. But take a look at the difference in the snowpack in just the last week.
The top is last Saturday and the bottom image is from this Saturday morning.
And the last two weeks have been pretty dry around here, especially where the deep snowpack has been (in much of Iowa).
Here's a look at the precipitation from the last week:
And there have been no big issues on rivers so far. Almost all sites are in the green and not experiencing flooding in my local area:
Here's what the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities has to say about the hydrology outlook right now:
Rivers across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and far northeast Missouri continue to show mainly minor within bank rises with a few sites having moderate within bank rises from the snowmelt. The majority of sites are expected to remain well below flood stage. The Wapsipinicon River near Dewitt is forecast to approach the minor flood stage Wednesday and Thursday. The Pecatonica River at Freeport as well as the Rock River near Joslin and at Moline are all forecast to rise to within a foot of their respective minor flood stages Wednesday through Friday. Warmer temperatures this weekend and into early next will promote a more vigorous snowmelt north of Highway 30. Low end flooding of ditches and fields is probably occurring along some small creeks from the ongoing snowmelt, especially north of I-80. The latest model runs still suggest a return to more active weather the second half of next week. However, it currently appears the heavier rains may fall across MO into central IL. That said, river interests across the southeast half of our CWA should continue to monitor the forecast for late next week.
A lot of the snow should go in the next few days as our temperatures soar into the 50s and 60s under a strong ridge of high pressure:
Temperatures start to climb on up Sunday:
Then comes our next storm systems which will bring in showers and thunderstorms to the central U.S. Here's a look at Wednesday on the European model:
There are still some differences about the intensity of this system. There should be plenty of moisture, but it's a matter of how the storm comes together. Here's a look at the precipitation total on the Euro:
And the much wetter GFS:
So there are certainly some details we still need to work out. But there are signs of spring all around us!
LIMITED COPIES LEFT:
I will take this opportunity to mention that Terry only has 30 copies left of his book on the most expensive thunderstorm in United States history (11 billion dollars in estimated damage). This will be the final printing. If you are interested in having the most authoritative account of this extreme event I would suggest you act now. Don't miss this opportunity to own the weather story of a generation. You can order yours at derechobook.com
*This book has been quite the talk with the Iowa State Library promoting it. I have never seen the State Library promote any books like this unless it was an award winner of particular interest to libraries. Hopefully your sales are through the roof!
Jolene Kronschnabel-Director of Hawkins Memorial Library, La Porte City, Iowa