GOOD FOR SOME, NOT FOR OTHERS

Monday, a weak wave made its way across the region with little in the way of fanfare. That said, there was enough instability and forcing during peak heating for a few showers and storms to develop. While they were isolated, brief, and light in most cases, a couple stronger updrafts produced isolated heavy totals of up to an inch. You can see them highlighted below. The storms rapidly dissipated with sunset.

A similar type of disturbance is set to bring another round of scattered showers and storms Tuesday. The energy (known as a ridge rider), will top the heat dome over the SW and then clip the region. The most likely area for the more concentrated rain is over my southern counties, especially SW of the Quad Cities.

While there are some positive convective parameters, especially CAPE (instability), there appears to be minimal shear for organized severe weather. Thus, a few storms might kick up marginally strong wind gusts of 40 mph, but the primary impacts would be those pesky-scattered downpours. Temperatures may also be held down a bit by cloud cover and outflow boundaries, which should also limit stronger storms when the initial line passes to across the SW in the morning.

As mentioned, there is widespread CAPE ahead of the short wave, which shows up nicely below.

This simulated radar of the 3K NAM depicts how the remnants of overnight storms plow south during the morning. Things dry out in the afternoon before some additional storms try to pop up towards evening. These should fall apart fairly quickly after sunset Tuesday.

Models vary significantly with the coverage and overall rain amounts, leading to a low confidence forecast in those categories. Here's what they currently suggest for rain through Tuesday night.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM

The HRRR

For the most part, temperatures Tuesday should remain in the low to mid 80s, but with dew points in the low 70s, there will be some steam to deal with.

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A STRONG SYSTEM FRIDAY?

After the system moves out, temperatures should be seasonal Wednesday and Thursday, meaning highs in the low to mid 80s. Dew points will also simmer down some, reaching the mid to upper 60s. Dry conditions also look likely, which means this will be a fine 2-day period of July weather.

The start of the coming weekend has the potential to get off to a stormy start Friday ahead of another short wave that digs significantly into the Midwest. It's too early to get cute with mesoscale details, but shear, moisture, and instability are shown to be substantial. Water vapor is over 2 inches with CAPE greater than 3,000 j/kg shown on the EURO. Very juicy air could bring a strong to severe weather threat to some part of the region.

The GFS shows a warm-front setting up over my central or northern counties, which backs the flow and enhances shear. We'll need to keep an eye on the situation the next 24–48 hours. Timing of the forcing will be the determining factor as to how this plays out late Friday.

After the storms later Friday or Friday evening, a much cooler and drier air mass should bring highs back down to the mid and upper 70s Saturday and Sunday. In the second week of July, that is bonus weather and we will take it. Roll weather...TS.