A RIP ROARING BREEZE

For the last 4 months, the days have been steadily growing shorter. On top of that, the sun's rays are less direct, limiting solar insolation. While we haven't had to pay in a big way yet, we are well on our way to winter, and it's just a matter of time before the Arctic hounds begin to howl. The return of colder air is a key ingredient for winds and stronger storms. In fact, if the temperature was uniform over all the planet, there would be no wind. The larger the thermal gradient, the stronger the winds. Now, with colder air entering the pattern on a more regular basis, stronger pressure gradients mean more in the way of wind and storminess. Summer, what's left of it, looks to me like it's fading fast.

Proof of that was an impressive storm that whipped up winds Sunday and produced some heavy rain just to our east. A portion of that precipitation clipped my southeastern counties. Another strong storm is hot on its tail and won't bring much for precipitation, but it will rev up the winds and bring us a quick pop of colder air that could very will bring frost and potentially freezing temperatures come Thursday or Friday morning.

Another influx of energy around October 28th has the potential to bring more widespread rain, wind, and even colder conditions. More on that event in a minute.

First, on this hi-resolution GOES Satellite late Monday, you can see the system that will whip us with high winds Tuesday. The initial band of clouds over the region Monday night will depart, only to be followed by another round of low stratus that pours in early Tuesday. Scattered light showers are possible in the afternoon or evening, particularly north of I-80.

Strong cold air advection will generate winds of 35 to 40 mph out of the northwest, with a few gusts to 45 possible. These are the 10-meter peak wind gusts shown on the EURO Tuesday.

Mid-afternoon temperatures are shown in the 40s and low 50s.

Toss in the wind and showers, and mid-afternoon wind chills in the upper 30s north will make for an eye-opening day.

The chilly conditions will stick around the remainder of the week with highs low to mid 50s Wednesday, inching into the range of 55 north to 60 south Thursday and Friday. All three days appear dry with significantly less in the way of wind.

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FROSTY NIGHTS AHEAD...

With less in the way of wind, I look for the coldest readings of the fall to occur Thursday night and Friday night, when we are in proximity to a ridge axis. A frost advisory or freeze warning could be issued by the NWS for both Thursday and Friday morning, the 12K NAM drops lows into the upper 20s to low 30s by day break Thursday.

The GFS is 4-3 degrees warmer, most likely due to a slight breeze. If we go calm, the 12K could be in the ballpark, but how cold we end up is highly contingent on winds becoming calm. Still some doubt on that issue.

The weekend itself is highly dependent on a system ejecting out of the southern Plains. Most guidance keeps the rain making element of the storm to the south. However, some clouds and a few sprinkles might work their way into the far south. Weekend highs are shown holding mainly in the mid to upper 50s Saturday, before surging into the 60s Sunday.

Early next week we come under the influence of what should be a large slow moving upper air storm emerging from the Pacific. You can watch the energy spin out of the west Saturday and evolve into a stacked system that gets trapped by a block over Canada for several days next week.

That's an impressive looking structure with robust dynamics and ample moisture. No doubt models will struggle with the track until data is better sampled off the west coast. That said, the ensembles of both the EURO and GFS, composed of multiple members, are in good enough agreement to suggest a well deserved rain event is possible in the period October 27th through the 29th.

The EURO ensembles

THe GFS ensembles

While temperatures will initially be mild, at some point the circulation will deliver a round of chilly temperatures that could very well feature highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. There are many loose ends to tie up, but I think the general idea of a significant system is well-supported at this distance. I will be watching.

Hold onto your hat today and don't forget the coat, a frisky wind will bring a noticeable chill. Roll weather...TS