A SHORT JUNE SWOON...

What a beautiful day, Friday. I was out playing in the annual Miller family golf outing held at Lacoma golf course near Dubuque and the weather could not have been better. Temperatures were in the upper 70s, dew points in the mid 50s, and a gentle breeze was in play. Comfortable as it was, the June sun was super strong, and we all took a pretty good beating. I should have opted for the sunscreen. Whatever, it was a great day to be outside and on the links with about 40 Millers, most who hail from Muscatine. Too bad none of them can golf! Maybe next year.

Weatherwise, some interesting things are going on that are tied to the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation). For those who may not know, it's a teleconnection used to see trends before they often show up on the deterministic models. The MJO is based on convective activity in 8 regions of the tropical Pacific. By knowing where the convection exists, we have learned that it leads to specific temperature and precipitation trends in North America in roughly 6–10 days.

Here's a phase diagram showing by way of the red dotted line, how the MJO is set to cycle into phase 7 (with some amplitude) the next 5–6 days before going neutral after that.

Below is what the phase 7 500mb heights look like in a neutral state ENSO (EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) which is what currently exists. Notice the deep blue trough over the NC United States.

That is very much the look the EURO is advertising Friday through Tuesday of next week. Watch that trough dig in. That's a confirmed teleconnection.

The analogs tied to phase 7 point to below normal temperatures and somewhat below normal precipitation.

With the deep closed low digging into the Great Lakes, the NW flow will certainly bring cooler than normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday. While there will be some showers, especially Sunday as the energy thrusts a cold front through, rainfall does not look more than light to moderate. Here's the 5-day temperature departures Saturday through Wednesday, very much in keeping with the phase 7 MJO.

Additionally, 5 day precipitation is shown 1/2 inch or more below normal, also consistent with the phase 7 MJO.

The bottom line is that the MJO signalled this upcoming weather period well before the modeling. Now both are in sync, leading to a high confidence forecast into the middle of next week. The MJO can be a very effective tool to get a heads-up on a coming pattern.

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BREAKING DOWN THE WEEKEND...

Breaking it down, a lead disturbance cuts a path across Missouri into Illinois Saturday. Showers and a perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are expected later in the day and into the evening. It's the south, that is closer to the best forcing, that has the best chance of seeing rain, which at this time appears to be light, 1/4 inch or less. Most of the day should be dry before rain develops in the south. Highs in the low to mid 70s are expected.

Once this passes, the big upper air low I showed spinning in from the northwest sends a cold front into the area Sunday. There should be adequate forcing for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it in the afternoon. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s before cooler air arrives Sunday night. Rain amounts should again be around 1/4 inch, but some local areas that see storms could pick up more than 1/2 inch. The 3k NAM shows decent instability, with CAPE over 2,000 j/kg. Isolated strong storms are possible.

Monday, the cold core of the upper air low is in the vicinity, driving steep lapse rates and the formation of instability clouds and even some showers Monday, especially in the north. Highs will sink into the mid to upper 60s north to the low to mid 70s far south. It will turn breezy as well. By Tuesday morning, the GFS shows widespread 40s as the coolest air passes overhead.

Here's what models indicate for total precipitation Saturday through Monday night.

The EURO

The GFS

The 10K GEM

The 3k NAM

Wednesday, and beyond, a slow but steady warming trend is expected as winds return to the southwest. Highs should return to the 80s by next Friday and Saturday, much closer to normal. How long they stay there is questionable. The EURO brings a prolonged period of heat that lasts through June 20th. The GFS backs it off quickly, with highs back in the mid to upper 70s by June 15th. The jury is still out on the final verdict.

Have a delightful weekend, everybody. Roll weather...TS