THE PATTERN REALLY WANTS TO DO IT

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The beginning of February looks to be fairly benign across the region as we have discussed the last couple of days, but longer term the pattern really wants to try produce some action in the central US. This was mainly based on teleconnection signals like the PNA trending back into negative territory by mid-month. This evening, however, we are also starting to see some of the ensemble guidance trend towards a more active pattern later this month. The American GEFS is showing a storm system around the Feb. 10-12 time frame.

The European Ensemble also shows a signal for more active weather, but it is much less confident in a storm with a large spread and lesser precipitation totals. The fact the two major global ensembles are in line with some type of system at least gives us confidence there's something to watch.

Analogs have also started moving towards a more active pattern as well with chances for above-normal precipitation increasing near a 60-70% chance. This again is well in line with the ensemble forecasts with the time frames matching. We at least have something to watch in this otherwise quiet stretch of weather.

The PNA is elevated right now which explains the mainly quiet weather pattern and the action out east, however by Feb. 8-9 notice the mean line is dropping back into negative territory with the control running even lower than the mean. This would be a good signal to finally get some more active weather to the central US.

The EURO

The GFS

While the operational models both show a fairly strong storm around Feb. 11 you can clearly see the major differences between the Euro and the GFS - to snow or not to snow. The Euro is quite robust with the potential for snow with a potential system while the GFS is mainly rain. Personally, with a limited snowpack in the region, I would not be shocked by a milder system with more rain potential than snow potential. It's actually rather impressive at this far range both global models show a similar storm track and timing. There is a lot of time to for this to change, so the main takeaway here is a storm to watch.

If you see scary snow maps hyping a ton of snow more than a week out, please be very careful about sharing them. We're way too far away to get into the weeds.

Another reason I am favoring a warmer storm system with more rain potential than snow is the fact the temperatures are likely trending warmer in the coming week. Model guidance and the blend shows temperatures warming into the low/mid 40s creeping in by early next week. It's hard to get snow with this much warm air in place ahead of time. We are getting warmer though! So that's some good news. Overall, warming and quiet through the start of February with some interesting patterns brewing mid-month.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart