TO SNOW, OR NOT TO SNOW...

THE FUTURE DEPENDS ON YOU. IF I DO NOT REACH MY FUND-RAISING GOAL THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE...

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TO SNOW, OR NOT TO SNOW...

Back on December 13th, most of my local area had already received 18-24 inches of snow, more than had fallen the entirety of the previous winter. We were on a pace that could easily have produced record seasonal snowfall. There was just one problem: the snow abruptly stopped and has stayed off ever since. By December 13th, Moline had measured 18.6 inches of snow; 6 weeks later, the total is 20.5 inches (not including what's fallen today). The Quad Cities has not had a one-day 1" snowfall since! Moline has gone from 13 inches above normal to an inch below normal today. That, my friends, is a snow drought.

From the look of things, we won't be coming out of the snow drought in the next week. However, the PNA is going to flip negative, which in time improves chances of moisture and a stormier flow as a West Coast trough takes shape. Eventually the 500mb pattern looks like this on the EURO February 16th

And this on the GFS

That is significantly different from today at 500mb below, with the trough currently situated over the east.

I would expect the pattern to become more active if the flip happens as shown by the 14th. That would improve chances for snowfall at that time. The caveat is whether there will be enough cold air for snow as opposed to rain. I was quite stunned to see the meteogram of the EURO showing this in the Quad Cities the next 15 days. It has 7 consecutive days in the 50s.

The GFS is a more toned-down version, with only one 50 and mid-30s to low 40s more common. Considering the AO and NAO are negative, that should favor the colder solution of the GFS, especially with the EURO's bias of sticking too much trough in the west.

That said, this winter has defied a lot of tried and true teleconnections and I would be off my rocker to say the EURO couldn't end up being right. For now it is apparent that with the PNA going negative this weekend, we are soon to be out of the deep freeze we've battled the past 2 weeks.

In conclusion, a pattern change is developing, and there is a warmer look coming, most pronounced in the coming weekend. After the 10th, the probability of more moisture increases, and precipitation chances should improve in the 10-14 day period. There is the possibility that a respectable storm could form in that time frame. The GFS shows one on the 14th that's followed by another on the 17th. That's a trend that will need refining in the coming days.

February 14th

February 17th

Let's get the ball rolling. I've had more than enough of this cold, bone-dry pattern. ON A SERIOUS NOTE, IF I DON'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU...T.S.

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